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Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
If you read yesterday, we already have a side in this game with the Suns coming through to leave us with Celtics ML (+103). I’m not going to add anything to the 5.5-point spread (largest of the series), but do lean to Boston in this spot, and Milwaukee on Friday night to send us to a Game 7 on Sunday.
As for this game, while Horford has to come down from this high at some point, I think we can continue to ride his prop in this spot. The status of Robert Williams doesn’t alter this play for me, but we can wait to see if Time Lord plays, potentially getting us less juice on this prop. In reality, Williams’ status doesn’t matter — Big Al put up 22 points and 16 boards with Williams in the lineup in Game 3.
The matchup just works for Horford, with Milwaukee’s defense leaving him for wide open triples. He’s been making them pay, shooting an insane 14-for-28 from downtown in the series. The rebounds have been there too, but if Williams does play, you could consider switching to 13.5 points, which is equally as strong a play.
If you read on Monday, you know we already have a nice position in this game at a discount, as planned. With the Warriors over a -500 favorite on Monday, we played the Warriors to win the series 4-1, which gives us even money on them in this game. If you’ve been tailing since the start of the playoffs, or just this round, we also have the -1.5 game series spread on GSW. If this Warriors can close this out tonight, we stand to win 3-units.
But if you’re yet to get involved in the series, I still think this is a spot worth getting invested in the Dubs. I understand how close Game 4 was in Golden State, but the Warriors shot 24% from downtown and were very sloppy with 16 turnovers. Maybe they played with their food, but the shooting is going to level off somewhere in-between what we saw in Games 3 and 4.
With Ja Morant continuing to sit, I expect the Warriors to be a bit more focused in this closeout game on the road. Morant had to go for a 47-8-8 line to get the Grizzlies their only win in the series, and I just don’t feel Memphis has the firepower to win one of these games if the Dubs are just average.
This is a really big opportunity for the Warriors, who have a real chance to gain some extra rest over their Western Conference Finals opponent, particularly if the other series goes to a seventh game.
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers — Thursday
We’re already invested in the series here, which cased me to pass on Miami in Game 5. That was dumb. But I saw what I needed to see, and more importantly, heard what I needed to hear after this game. Philly is defeated, and this is a spot that its players and coach have not performed well in in the past.
No article for me on Thursday, so I’m adding to it here. While we have the series play on the Heat, I’ll likely play some moneyline as underdogs. The team is better with a dinged up Kyle Lowry out of the rotation right now, and I don’t expect him to play. The Heat play with an attitude that the 76ers can’t match, and I’m expecting Jimmy Butler and company to thrive in this closeout game on the road.
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