The Grizzlies are fresh off a loss to the Utah Jazz, but they’ve already clinched the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference so results won’t affect their postseason positioning at this point. The Nuggets are still looking to clinch their playoff spot while also hoping to gain some ground on the Jazz as they’re just one game behind the fifth seed.
The Nuggets are 5.5-point favorites at home, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. They’re on the board at -225 on the moneyline while the Grizz come in at +185. The point total is set at 232.5.
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets, 9:00 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Grizzlies +5.5
Memphis has exceeded all expectations this season, and it hasn’t all been due to Ja Morant. The guard has been out since mid-March with a knee injury, and while he’s been instrumental to the Grizzlies success, they’ve proven they can still be a dominant team without him. They’ve gone 7-1 straight up in the eight games he’s been out, which includes wins over the Bucks, Warriors, Nets, and Suns in that stretch. They’ve proven that the rest of the team can pick up the slack when their leading scorer isn’t on the court, as guys like Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and Tyus Jones have all put in 20+ point performances through the last couple of weeks.
Denver has gone just 5-5 SU in the last 10, and an even worse 3-7 ATS mark in that same stretch. The Nuggets rely heavily on Nikola Jokic for elite performances on both ends of the court, but now they’ll come up against a Memphis team who’s been firing on all cylinders. The Grizzlies boast the league’s best defense through their last 10 games, allowing just 108.6 points per game through that span. In that same stretch, they’ve scored an average of 122.6 ppg, and that only includes two games with Morant on the floor.
The Nuggets are 14-25 ATS at home this season, and with the Grizzlies still flying high despite their guaranteed second seed in the West, I’m taking the visitors to cover this one in Denver tonight.
Over/Under: Over 232.5
Both teams have some of the best offensive play in the league and are capable of pushing almost any game over the total on a good night. The Nuggets are 7-3 on the over in their last 10 outings, while the Grizzlies have gone over in their past two games. All things considered, 232.5 honestly seems a bit low for both of these teams, so take the over at Ball Arena tonight.
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