Follow along on Twitter (@julianedlow) for any potential updates — things can change rapidly leading up to a draft based on news and information.
Each article I write up will feature one NFL Draft prop available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Betting drafts is a completely different animal than betting the outcome of games. There are no winners or losers. No refs or bad beats. It’s about tracking an information based market and using what you’re able to gather to find an edge on the board. These articles will all feature one NFL Draft prop that I feel is worth locking in at the time of publication and those specific odds. But things can change, and that means hedging and placing bets that contradict some of our previous bets could come into play, all with the intention of profiting on draft weekend. The draft market has been very good to us the last couple of years. Let’s looks to keep building!
NFL Draft Position Prop
I’m getting started later on NFL Draft than I’d hoped to, and that means missing the best number on some of our initial plays here. Hopefully that evens out in the future, as there’s sure to be some great value on the board as we gain more information in these last few weeks leading up to the draft.
Thibodeaux opened up at 4.5, but moved quickly. Once considered in-play for the No. 1 overall pick, it seemed obvious that this prop might open with some value. The edge rusher from Oregon has clearly seen his stock drop, and is not in consideration as the top pick by any means.
I think Thibs falls out of the top-five for a couple of reasons that are working in his favor. First, let’s stay on the field and look at the teams drafting in the top-five.
Most of the teams drafting near the top of the board are looking for help on offense. This is a great draft for offensive lineman, and a lot of these teams have young/recently drafted quarterbacks to protect.
It seems like the only realistic landing spot in the top-five would be the New York Jets at No. 4. That said, the Jets are one of those teams that should be looking to help out Zach Wilson with this pick, especially after he finally showed a bit of promise to end the season.
Potentially more importantly, Thibodeaux has reportedly been awful in his interviews. Teams are worried about his ego, building his brand and if his real focus is actually on football. That has to be a massive red flag when investing a top-five pick in someone.
I see Thibs going late in the top-10, if he even cracks that number. This prop was once juiced to -180, but has ticked down as low as -115 over the weekend. I’ll get in at this number.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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