Fresno State vs. Boise State picks and best bets for Mountain West Championship

The 2022 Mountain West Conference Championship Game will take place on Saturday as the Fresno State Bulldogs will take on the Boise State Broncos at 4 p.m. ET. The game will take place at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID, and will air on Fox.

Fresno State (8-4, 7-1 MWC) was able to turn things around after a dire start to the regular season and finds itself playing for the league title. Stumbling out of the gate with a 1-4 record, the Bulldogs carved right through the heart of its Mountain West schedule by rattling off seven straight wins to take the Mountain division title. Part of the early-season inconsistencies was due to quarterback Jake Haener being sidelined with a leg injury. He returned in October and restored order from there. Fresno’s offense was also fueled by running back Jordan Mims, who went over 1,000 rushing yards with 14 touchdowns for the year.

Boise State (9-3, 8-0 MWC) faced a crossroads moment early in the season and that resulted in it dominating its way through league play. Following an embarrassing 27-10 loss to UTEP, offensive coordinator Tim Plough was fired and that prompted starting Hank Bachmeier to enter the transfer portal. Instead of folding, the Broncos managed to get stronger throughout the season and claimed the Mountain division title. Taylen Green held his own in place of Bachmeier and was helped out by running back George Holani, who went over 1,000 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns for the year.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Fresno State: 59 overall, 64 offense, 47 defense
Boise State: 52 overall, 84 offense, 27 defense

Injury update

Fresno State

No new injuries to report.

Boise State

S Tyreque Jones - Questionable (Undisclosed)
WR Cole Wright - Questionable (Undisclosed)
TE Riley Smith - Questionable (Undisclosed)
WR Stefan Cobbs - Questionable (Undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Fresno State: 5-7 ATS
Boise State: 6-5-1 ATS

Total

Fresno State: Over 7-5
Boise State: Over 6-6

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Boise State -3
Total: 54.5
Moneyline: Boise State -155, Fresno State +135

Opening line: Boise State -4.5
Opening total: 50.5

Weather

38 degrees, cloudy, 7 MPH winds SE

The Pick

Fresno State ML +135

Both of these teams overcame mid-season funks to reach this point and for Fresno State, its turning point came following a 40-20 loss against very Boise State ballclub. When it comes down to it, I trust the more seasoned offense to get the job done in a big situation like this, even on the road. Give me the Bulldogs straight up in the league title game.