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Baylor vs. Air Force picks and best bets for Armed Forces Bowl

The Bears underwhelmed this seaosn, but can they cap it on a high note against Air Force?

NCAA Football: Baylor at Texas Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

The Armed Forces Bowl between the Baylor Bears (6-6,4-5 Big 12) and Air Force (9-3, 5-3 MWC) kicks off Thursday night at 7:30 p.m. from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

Baylor underwhelmed this season, I don’t think anybody would argue that point. Especially considering this team was ranked No. 9 in Week 2. Quarterback Blake Shapen didn’t take the step forward that many were hoping for, he only threw 16 touchdowns and had 10 interceptions as well. They’ve lost three straight heading into this game too, though all three were against ranked opponents.

Air Force had a solid season, coming away with the Commander In Chief’s Trophy after toppling both Navy and Army. The Falcons, like all the service academy teams, are a run-heavy team. They average over 330 yards on the ground every game. The O is led by RB Brad Roberts. He’s got 1612 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground this season. The team boasts three runners that have over 600 yards on the ground. Air Force has an elite defense too, giving up just 13.2 points per game.

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Baylor -3.5
Total: 43
Moneyline: Baylor -170, Baylor +145

Key players that have opted-out, injuries for Armed Forces Bowl


Kyron Drones QB (transfer)

Josh Fleeks RB Baylor (transfer)

Devin Neal Jr. S Baylor (transfer)

Air Force



The weather will be very frigid once the sun goes down in Fort Worth on Thursday night. Low temperature is expected to be in the single digits and wind will be a factor. It’ll be blowing from 25-35 mph with the potential for higher gusts throughout the night.

The Pick: Air Force +3.5

That forecast plays directly into the hands of Air Force. They’re more than happy to keep the ball on the ground, drain the clock and make Baylor capitalize on all of their possessions. One slip-up for Baylor on offense and then the Falcons can just hold onto the ball and put together a 10-minute drive to end the game.