Did you fall asleep last night and want to get caught up with the latest on the 2022 election? Here’s the latest from the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races across the country.
NBC has put there projection with Republicans finishing with a lead 220-215 as of now. That would mean a Republican majority in the House, and the R’s will pick up more than the net five seats they needed to take over the Speaker’s gavel. But again this is just a projection, and it’s still possible the Democrats pick up enough races late to maintain a majority of their own.
But by how many is the question. as 63 of those races are still not officially called. 18 of those alone are in California, where we might not have final results for weeks.
Right now at Polymarket, Republicans are given an 87% chance by bettors to take over the House. That’s actually a lower price than the one we saw before the election, and it’s a surprise that this issue is still in question.
Democrats have flipped one seat so far, as John Fetterman’s win in Pennsylvania is a net gain of +1 in the chamber they currently control 50-50 with the help of Vice President Kamala Harris. While the news outlets haven’t called five states, we’ve got a pretty good idea of which way those should finish.
- Arizona: Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly seems strongly ahead of Blake Masters, and he should hold on there with a 6-point lead and 66% of the vote counted. Kelly sits at .87 at PredictIt and .88 at Polymarket.
- Georgia: We’re heading for a runoff between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. Warnock leads 49.4% to 48.5% with over 95% of the vote counted, but he’s unlikely to get to the 50% needed to avoid another election on December 5. Warnock leads .62-.38 at Polymarket
- Nevada: While Adam Laxalt leads incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez-Masto for now at 49.9% to 47.2% with 75% counted, most of the remaining vote is mail-in and strongly favors Cortez-Masto. She’s the odds on favorite as well, priced at .67 on both Polymarket and PredictIt
- Wisconsin: Despite a late charge from Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, it’s likely Republican Ron Johnson hangs on to hold his seat. Johnson leads by 32k votes with a bit over 2.6 million counted, 94% of the statewide total. Johnson leads with .96 at PredictIt and .99 at Polymarket
- Alaska: This one is tougher to judge because of Alaska’s ranked choice voting system. Right now Republican Kelly Tshibaka leads Republican Lisa Murkowski 44.4% to 42.7% with about 75% tabulated. But a Republican will win here.
Democrats will need to win Arizona, and at least one from the duo of Nevada or Georgia, to maintain Senate control. Bettors think that’s likely, as they are priced at 75 at Polymarket, and .87 at PredictIt
A late charge by Republican Kari Lake means she’s likely to win Arizona, as she’s priced at .75 at PredictIt and .66 at Polymarket. Hobbs holds a 1.8% lead on the vote for now with 66% reported however,
Things look good for Joe Lombardo over incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak in Nevada. The Clark County Sheriff and Republican Lombardo is at .86 on Polymarket.
Democrat Tina Kotek appears to be the next Governor of Oregon over Republican Christine Drazan in an unusual three-way race in Oregon. Kotek is at .96 at Polymarket. Kotek leads by 1% for now with 66% counted, but her strongholds mostly remaining.