2022 election odds for control of US Senate

Nov. 12, 9:20 p.m. The Democrats will maintain control of the United States Senate.

We still don’t know who will win the House of Representatives, but the Republicans are favored as they have a price of .81 at Polymarket with many races around the country still undecided.

But the Senate, which was just at .21 for the Democrats when votes starting being counted on Election Day, will now be safely in their hands no matter what happens with the runoff between Warnock and Walker in Georgia.

Nov. 11, 9:20 a.m. It appears the Democrats are well-poised to keep control of the chamber.

The blue team just needs to win one of the last two outstanding races (we’re calling Arizona for Mark Kelly as Dave Wasserman has though some of the networks are still behind here).

In Nevada, Catherine Cortez-Masto trails Adam Laxalt by 8,988 votes with 919,965 cast. But most of the outstanding vote is mail-in vote from Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) counties. That’s fertile territory for the Democratic incumbent, and the markets agree that CCM should pull ahead: She leads .87-.17 at PredictIt, and .87-.13 at Polymarket.

Also the Georgia runoff between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker will take place on December 6, but Warnock is favored to win here as well. The Democratic incumbent is priced at .73-.29 at PredicitIt, and .71-.29 at Polymarket.

The markets have made up their minds however, and they are strongly in favor of the Democrats. Continued control by the blue team of the Senate stands at .93-.08 at PredictIt, and .94-.06 at Polymarket.

Nov. 9, 7:15 a.m. Here’s the latest!

• Arizona: Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly seems well ahead of Blake Masters, and he should hold on there with a 6-point lead and 66% of the vote counted. Kelly sits at .87 at PredictIt and .88 at Polymarket.
• Georgia: We’re heading for a runoff between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. Warnock leads 49.4% to 48.5% with over 95% of the vote counted, but he’s unlikely to get to the 50% needed to avoid another election on December 5. Warnock leads .62-.38 at Polymarket
• Nevada: While Adam Laxalt leads incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez-Masto for now at 49.9% to 47.2% with 75% counted, most of the remaining vote is mail-in and strongly favors Cortez-Masto. She’s the odds on favorite as well, priced at .67 on both Polymarket and PredictIt
• Wisconsin: Despite a late charge from Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, it’s likely Republican Ron Johnson hangs on to hold his seat. Johnson leads by 32k votes with a bit over 2.6 million counted, 94% of the statewide total. Johnson leads with .96 at PredictIt and .99 at Polymarket
• Alaska: This one is tougher to judge because of Alaska’s ranked choice voting system. Right now Republican Kelly Tshibaka leads Republican Lisa Murkowski 44.4% to 42.7% with about 75% tabulated. But a Republican will win here.

Democrats need to win Arizona, and at least one from the duo of Nevada or Georgia, to maintain Senate control. Bettors think that’s likely, as they are priced at 75 at Polymarket, and .87 at PredictIt.

12:53 a.m. NBC News has called Pennsylvania for John Fetterman. The bettors agree, as he’s at .98 at Polymarket.

It puts Senate control with the Democrats at .84.

Meanwhile in Georgia 94% tabulated, Raphael Warnock is at 49.4% to Herschel Walker’s 48.5%. If Warnock can claw together another 0.6% in areas that seem to lean in his direction, he’ll be able to avoid a runoff in the Peach State and keep his seat directly.

12:15 a.m. Democrats are now .80 to hold the Senate at PredictIt, and .77 at Polymarket.

We have no vote from Nevada, and while there’s a still a chance for Mandela Barnes to upset Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, it looks like Pennsylvania is safely with Democrat John Fetterman. And that should be enough for the blue team to hold the line.

As for Georgia: With 3,710,946 votes counted, Raphael Warnock has a 335 vote lead and yeah we just laughed typing that. It’s less than .001%, but what do irrational numbers matter after midnight? 90% of the vote is counted in the Peach State, and with what’s left you’d rather be Warnock than Walker for sure. But can Warnock get to 50%? That might be a much tougher climb.

11:30 p.m. With 3,587,680 votes cast, Herschel Walker leads Raphael Warnock by 706 votes. Oh my goodness this is close, and with both men receiving 49% of the vote, and Libertarian Chase Oliver at exactly 2%, it does appear headed to a runoff. But with the vote that’s out, if anyone is going to win tonight it would appear to be Warnock.

In Nevada we haven’t counted any votes yet, and it might take a while with some election process issues in the Silver State.

But the bettors have made their move. Democrats are priced at .66 to control the Senate at Polymarket, and .67 at PredictIt.

10:45 p.m. With respect to Mandela Barnes (who is 50-50 on the count right now, but a lot more Republican Ron Johnson vote remaining to our eyes), it’s all about Georgia and Nevada now. And that’s because In Arizona Mark Kelly looks quite good, as he’s outperformed Joe Biden in early vote so far.

So in Georgia you’d probably rather be Raphael Warnock than Herschel Walker, but either man getting to 50% seems more unlikely every vote that comes in. Walker is ahead on the count, but there’s plenty of remaining vote is a lot of suburban Atlanta, a Warnock stronghold.

The wagering community has weighed in, and it favors the Democrats retaining the US Senate. They’re at .68 at Polymarket, and .67 at PredictIt.

10:15 p.m. It’s been a wild one, and no real surprises in the races that might have sent up a signal. Maggie Hassan appears to be fine in New Hampshire, while JD Vance looks like he’ll hang on over Tim Ryan in a race that should finish much closer than expected.

But John Fetterman now sits at .82 at Polymarket in Pennsylvania, which is well ahead in a race where he hadn’t broken .50 in quite awhile. And while Raphael Warnock is down 49.4-48.7 to Herschel Walker with 73% of the vote counted in Georgia, bettors would rather be the pastor: He’s at .55 on Polymarket because of the amount of blue county vote remaining to be counted.

The question in that race might be if we’ll be doing it all over again in 28 days: If neither candidate gets 50% of the vote there will be a two-man runoff, and Libertarian Chase Oliver has 1.9% of the vote as of now.

9:35 p.m. Pennsylvania might be the most interesting race in the country, with Lt. Governor John Fetterman’s stroke affecting the race he seemed to be on the way to winning over Dr. Mehmet Oz. A shaky debate performance where it’s clear he’s still recovering didn’t help.

But the early numbers appear to be ahead of the curve, as Fetterman leads 55%-42% with a lot of his best vote in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh still yet to be counted. The Democrat is up to .66 at Polymarket, which is the first time he’s led in that market in months.

9:20 p.m. Uh-oh. Nevada is expected to be razor-thin, and now there will be some controversy. If this is for the control of the chamber, we could be in for a long week.

9:10 p.m. The latest numbers, updated by our friend Chinmay Vaidya!

Things are looking a bit better for Democrats than expected (outside of Florida, where they were trounced as if they were the Florida Panthers playing the Tampa Bay Lightning in a playoff series). It’s adding to their value, but the day-of vote in rural areas in both Georgia and North Carolina is helping the Republicans.

8:40 p.m. If you’re a Democrat, things do appear to be trending in your direction ever so slightly. But it’s just too early to call it.

The big news is Raphael Warnock seems to be outperforming the polls so far, as with 40% of the vote in and not too much from the Atlanta area, he leads Herschel Walker 52%-46%. He’s outperforming Stacey Abrams, who trails Brian Kemp 51%-48%.

But the bigger surprise might be Cheri Beasley in North Carolina holding on, as she leads 51%-47% with 57% counted.

And it’s helping the blue team at the odds board. Democrats have gone to .40 at PredictIt to retain the Senate, while Republicans are still the favorite by bettors at .66.

7:50 p.m. We’ve got a loooooong way to go, and we’ll be here all night and likely beyond when Pennsylvania and other states are involved, but some early numbers out of Georgia and the unexpected North Carolina seem to be favoring Democrats. Whether that will translate to winning seats remains to be seen, but it’s been enough to move the markets towards the blue team in early trading.

Polymarket: Republicans .72 R, Democrats .28 (D +.07 last hour)
PredictIt: Republicans .76 R, Democrats .27
BetFair: Republicans -303, Democrats +800, Tie* +275

No other real surprises at this time, but Georgia’s Democrat Raphael Warnock is outperforming the D gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams by about two points, likely due to the unpopularity of Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker. That might be enough to make a difference in the state.

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Control of the United States Senate is up for grabs as 35 of the 100 seats will be contested tonight across the country.

Republicans taking control of the Senate is considered less likely than the House of Representatives, but if the polls are close to correct we can expect to see Mitch McConnell or another member of his caucus to take over as the next Majority Leader in early January of 2023 from Chuck Schumer

We’ll be updating here all night and tracking the results as the come in. Check back here as the betting markets move around the 2022 midterm elections!

Current apportionment

Entering tonight’s election, there are 50 Democrats (which includes two independents that caucus with the party) against 50 Republicans. There are 14 seats currently controlled by Democrats being contested, and 21 that are held by Republicans.

Projections

The final forecast at FiveThirtyEight.com gives Republicans an 59-in-100 chance of taking over the lower chamber.

The Cook Political Report lists eight Democratic seats as safe, with 15 safe for Republicans. Another three seats are likely or lean D, with five likely or lean R. Fou races are considered true toss-ups.

DraftKings Sportsbook took bets in Canada’s province of Ontario until November 7. The last price available was Republicans -280, Democrats +200.

Latest Odds

6:30 p.m. ET on Election Day

Polymarket: Republicans .79 R, Democrats .21
PredictIt: Republicans .81 R, Democrats .23
BetFair: Republicans -455, Democrats +1000, Tie +350*

* A tie means Democratic control thru Vice President Kamala Harris, but is listed separately on this market