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2022 election odds for control of US House of Representatives

We break down the odds for which party will hold the gavel after tonight’s elections in the 2022 House of Representatives.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks during his weekly news conference at the U.S. Capitol on February 27, 2020 in Washington, DC. Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Control of the United States House of Representatives is up for grabs as all 435 seats will be contested tonight across the country.

Republicans taking control of the House is considered more likely than the Senate, and if the polls are close to correct we can expect to see Kevin McCarthy likely accept the gavel from Nancy Pelosi as the next Speaker of the House in early January of 2023.

We’ll be updating here all night and tracking the results as the come in. Check back here as the betting markets move around the 2022 midterm elections!

Current apportionment

Entering tonight’s election, there are 220 Democrats against 212 Republicans, with three currently-open seats as well.


The final forecast at gives Republicans an 84-in-100 chance of taking over the lower chamber.

The Cook Political Report lists 159 Democratic seats as safe, with 188 safe for Republicans. Another 28 seats are likely or lean D, with 24 likely or lean R. 36 races are considered true toss-ups.

Latest Odds

3:30 p.m. ET on Election Day

Polymarket: Republicans .91 R, Democrats .09
PredictIt: Republicans .94 R, Democrats .06
BetFair: Republicans -5000, Democrats +1100