Texas vs. No. 13 Kansas State picks and best bets for Week 10 Big 12 matchup

The No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats (6-2) host the Texas Longhorns (5-3) on Saturday, November 5 with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET. Kansas State is coming off of an absolute thrashing of Oklahoma State, winning 48-0. Backup quarterback Will Howard threw for 296 yards and four touchdowns, but will he be starting again this week if Adrian Martinez is healthy again?

The Longhorns are on the hunt for bowl eligibility after a few close losses derailed their season. While they had a bye last weekend, their most recent game was a loss against the same Oklahoma State team that the Wildcats crushed.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Texas: No. 6 overall, No. 13 offense, No. 16 defense
Kansas State: No. 14 overall, No. 37 offense, No. 8 defense

Injury update

Kansas State

QB Adrian Martinez - GTD (lower body)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Texas: 5-3 ATS
Kansas State: 5-2-1 ATS

Total

Texas: Over 3-5
Kansas State: Over 3-5

Overall Talent from 247Sports

Texas: No. 7 overall, No. 3 offense, No. 6 defense
Kansas State: No. 66 overall, No. 65 offense, No. 64 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Texas -2.5
Total: 54.5
Moneyline: Texas -135, Kansas State +115

Opening line: Texas -1
Opening total: 54

Weather

48 degrees, partly cloudy, 13 MPH winds SSW with wind gusts of up to 20 MPH

The Pick

Kansas State ML

This is a conditional pick: I’m taking Wildcats moneyline all day as long as Will Howard is starting. I think that the Kansas State defense will be able to stifle Texas’ offense, if not limit them as entirely as they did the Cowboys, but their offensive production may hinge on the Howard vs. Martinez starter debate.

If they start Martinez and put a block in the offensive momentum this team was clearly feeling with Howard, I’m not so sure about this ML, and may even take Texas to cover the 2.5-point spread in that situation.