Through the first eight weeks of the NFL regular season, we’ve seen underdogs and unders produce a consistent profit for bettors. Dogs are 70-52 ATS (57%). Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 28-18 ATS (61%) and ”sweet spot” dogs — +3.5 or more — are a sparkling 47-26 ATS (64%). Meanwhile, unders are 72-51 (59%). Divisional unders are 28-12 (70%) and windy unders — 10 MPH or more — are 21-8 (72%).
With these trends in mind, let’s examine five NFL Week 9 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors...
The Seahawks (5-3) have won three straight games and just beat the Giants, 27-13, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (3-5) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Vikings, 34-26, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Sharps seem to think this line is too high and they’ve grabbed the points with Seattle, dropping the Seahawks from +3.5 to +2. Divisional dogs are 23-17 ATS (58%) this season. Dogs receiving “severe” line movement of 1.5-point or more in their favor are 12-6 ATS (67%). We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game in this one. The total opened at 49 and has been steamed up to 50.5. The over is receiving 52% of bets but 64% of money, a sharp over bet discrepancy.
The Colts (3-4-1) have lost two straight games and just fell to the Commanders, 17-16, losing outright in the final minute as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (4-4) have won three of their last four games and just beat the Jets, 22-17, covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Patriots at home. However, despite receiving 60% of bets, New England has fallen from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp money grabbing the points with the Colts, triggering line movement in their favor. Sweet spot dogs — +3.5 or more — are 47-26 ATS (64%). Indianapolis is receiving 40% of bets but 61% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game here. The total opened at 40.5 and sharp under money has dropped the line down to 39.5. The under is receiving 46% of bets but 66% of money, a wiseguy bet split to the under. The Colts are 7-1 to the under this season.