NFL picks: Where is the sharp money for Commanders vs. Eagles on Monday Night Football?

VSiN market expert Josh Appelbaum has trends that apply to tonight’s game, plus updates on the line movement and the money shaping the market.

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Monday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football...

8:15 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11, 43.5)

The Commanders (4-5) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end last week, falling to the Vikings, 20-17, and pushing as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the undefeated Eagles (8-0) are coming off a 29-17 win over the Texans but failed to cover as 14-point road favorites.

This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. The public is pretty much split down the middle, with 50% of bets on both sides. Recreational bettors are torn as they respect the Eagles but also feel as though it might be a lot of points to lay. Despite the tickets being even, we’ve seen some shops move from Eagles -10.5 to -11. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So this slight movement toward Philadelphia signals some respected money laying the points with the Eagles.

However, the Commanders match several profitable betting systems. Divisional dogs are 29-17 ATS (63%) this season. Double-digit dogs are 9-5 ATS (64%). Primetime dogs are 18-11 ATS (61%). Taylor Heinicke is 8-2-1 ATS in his last 11 starts. Washington also has correlative betting value as a double-digit dog in a relatively low total game (43.5).

Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 43.5. This movement is notable because 60% of bets are taking the over, yet the total has fallen. This indicates sharp money playing the under, which is only receiving 40% of bets but 60% of money, a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet discrepancy. Divisional unders are 31-15 (67%) this season. Divisional unders that fall at least a half point are 17-5 (77%). Primetime unders are 20-10 (67%). The Commanders are 6-3 to the under this season, including 6-1 to the under in their last seven games. The forecast calls for low 40s with moderate 5 MPH winds.

The Eagles are +900 to go 17-0 this season. Philadelphia is +2500 to go a perfect 20-0.