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What Week 10 performance means for Tua Tagovailoa’s MVP odds

The Dolphins QB had another big game in a win over the Browns in Week 10. We break down what it means for Tua’s MVP chances.

Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins reacts after defeating the Cleveland Browns 39-17 at Hard Rock Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images

The Miami Dolphins beat the Cleveland Browns with relative ease in Week 10, and a beneficial result elsewhere has them flying high. The Bills were stunned at home by the Vikings losing in overtime and dropping out of first place. The Dolphins now hold a half game lead on Buffalo heading toward Week 11.

NFL MVP odds 2022: Tua Tagovailoa, Week 11

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa had another impressive performance on Sunday. he threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns in the 39-17 win. For the season, he now has 18 touchdowns against only three interceptions and 2,265 passing yards. In spite of missing two weeks due to a head injury, Tagovailoa is tied for third in touchdown passes. He ranks fourth in passing yards per game.

Following the win, his odds to win NFL MVP improved to +400. The QB had fallen out of the race after his injury, with his slipping to +8000 at one point. The Dolphins have three losses and all three came during his injury time, including two losses when he sat out and one in which he was knocked out of the game.

Tagovailoa and most everybody else faces a tall order in the MVP race with Patrick Mahomes rolling along. He’s taken over as favorite with +150 odds while long-time favorite Josh Allen has slipped to +600. QB wins is not a real stat, but unfortunately it impacts the MVP race. If Mahomes and Jalen Hurts keep winning, they’re likely to be the players splitting most of the MVP vote. That’s not to say they’re not worthy of winning, but if Mahomes plays well and the Chiefs lose, his odds likely slip. And if he has a mediocre game and they win, his odds likely don’t move.

Whatever the case, Tua Tagovailoa is having a magnificent season. He gets some huge matchups that could help or hurt his profile, including a brutal three-game road trip against the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills. If the Dolphins somehow manage to sweep that series behind strong Tua performances, he very well might just deserve to win the MVP award.