Pick on the Total for the Rays-Guardians game on October 8

The Tampa Bay Rays look to keep their season alive on Saturday in Cleveland against the Guardians and turn to one of their biggest pieces from when they made the 2020 World Series, Tyler Glasnow.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians (-115, 6)

Glasnow’s 1.35 ERA is terrific, but it has come in just 6 2/3 innings pitched this season, with one of his two starts coming against the Cleveland Guardians where he gave up a solo home run in three innings of work.

Glasnow hardly pitched during the 2022 regular season as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery and is not stretched out to his normal standards, meaning the bullpen will need to be ready to go to work.

Since the All-Star break the Rays rank eighth among MLB team in bullpen ERA, but usage seems to be catching up to them as their bullpen ERA the past 30 days is 3.94, which is 18th in the league.

Though the Guardians don’t have a lot of pop, ranking last in the league in home runs per game at home, they do the little things to generate runs, leading the league in fewest strikeouts per game and are third in the American League in batting average since the All-Star Break.

The Guardians have the best bullpen ERA in the league since the All-Star Break, but starter Triston McKenzie has number that seem to indicate negative regression might be coming. He’s ERA is 2.96, but fielding independent is 3.59 as opponents are hitting .201 off of him and MLB Statcast’s expected opponents batting average being .222.

The Rays bullpen has thrown the most innings of any team in baseball this season and with the Guardians fourth in the league in on-base percentage the past 30 days, Game Two of this Wild Card series should feature more scoring than Game One.

The Play: Rays vs. Guardians Over 6

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