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What are sharps betting for NFL Week 5?

Wiseguys have been moving lines and looking for value this week.

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Washington Commanders v Dallas Cowboys Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

NFL underdogs continued their winning ways in Week 4, posting an 8-7-1 ATS record. Dogs are now 38-25 ATS (60%) overall. Dogs that missed the playoffs the previous season are 28-14 ATS (67%). Meanwhile, over/unders split 8-8 in Week 4. Unders still hold an edge on the season, posting a 38-26 (59%) record through the first month of play. The top spot for totals has been divisional unders, which are off a blistering 17-5 (77%) start. Primetime unders are 9-4 (69%) and windy unders 10 MPH are 12-4 (75%).

With these trends in mind, let’s examine five NFL Week 5 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 42.5) at Washington Commanders

The Titans (2-2) have rebounded from an 0-2 start and have now won two straight games. Tennessee is coming off a 24-17 win over the Colts, winning outright as a 4-point road dog. Meanwhile, the Commanders (1-3) have dropped three straight after winning the season opener. Washington just fell to Dallas 25-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Titans listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Tennessee. However, despite 87% of bets backing the Titans, we’ve seen this line fall from 3 down to 2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Commanders, with pros jumping on Washington at the key number of +3. The Commanders are only receiving 13% of bets but 34% of money, a sharp 21% bet vs dollar discrepancy. Washington also has buy-low value as a dog that didn’t cover the previous week against a favorite that did cover.

Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 44) at New York Jets

The Dolphins (3-1) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to the Bengals 27-15 and failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Jets (2-2) just beat the Steelers 24-20, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Dolphins, which has driven the line up from Miami -3 to -3.5. But now we’re starting to see sharp buyback on the Jets plus the hook, as the Jets +3.5 is juiced to -120 and some shops are falling back down to 3. Essentially, we are now looking at a sharp line freeze on the Jets, with pros grabbing New York plus the hook at home. The Jets are only receiving 29% of bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of Week 5. New York also has value as a divisional dog and a conference dog +6 or less (60% ATS since 2019). Teddy Bridgewater will start for the Dolphins while Zach Wilson will be making his second start coming back from injury. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44. Divisional unders are 17-5 (77%) this season.

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