Odds to win Arizona Governor race between Katie Hobbs and Kari Lake

Update Nov. 13 3:20 p.m. ET The betting market opinion is that Katie Hobbs is about to pull the upset, yet another blue candidate that’s done well in what was considered by the markets nearly a safe seat for the Republican.

With 88% of the vote counted, Hobbs leads Kari Lake 50.8% to 49.2% with 2.28 million votes cast. Lake making up the margin with mail-in and uncounted ballots so far is looking less likely, and the markets reflect this.

Right now at Polymarket, Hobbs is .79 to win. At PredictIt, that number is .81.

Update Nov. 11 9:00 a.m. ET While the votes are still being counted, the bettors think Hobbs will pull the upset. At PredictIt the Democrat is priced at .62 to .44 for Lake, while at Polymarket it’s .62 Hobbs and .38 for Lake.

With 82% of the votes in and 2,036,653 cast, Hobbs holds a 26,979 vote advantage as the counting continues. Considering the vote that’s out in Maricopa and Pima County, you can understand why voters favor Hobbs.

Update 12:45 a.m. ET We appear to be on the verge of an upset in Arizona, as Hobbs is now at .68 to win the race at Polymarket. She’s .65 at PredictIt, but the early voting seems quite strong. Hobbs leads by a bit more than 12% with about half of the state counted already.

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The 2022 Arizona Gubernatorial election has been one of the most dramatic anywhere in the country. Local newscaster Kari Lake has been based in the Phoenix area for decades, and despite her previous support for President Obama and other Democrats, she has fully embraced Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. She has the endorsement of the 45th President.

It has served her well so far as not only has she closed the gap on Democrat Katie Hobbs, she’s surpassed her more conventional challenger in most polling. It was considered a bit unusual that Hobbs chose not to debate Lake, despite Lake’s continuing to cast doubt on the results of the 2020 election that saw Arizona choose Joe Biden for the Oval Office.

We’re using two websites to track how betting on the election is going:

PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.

PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.

Both sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met.

Odds to win Arizona Governor’s race

Nov. 7

PredictIt D: Hobbs .20
PredictIt R: Lake .83

PolyMarket D: Hobbs .20
PolyMarket R: Lake 80

Nov. 2

PredictIt D: Hobbs .19
PredictIt R: Lake .84

PolyMarket D: Hobbs .25
PolyMarket R: Lake .75

Nov. 1

PredictIt D: Hobbs .20
PredictIt R: Lake .82

PolyMarket D: Hobbs .22
PolyMarket R: Lake .78

Oct. 28

PredictIt D: Hobbs .20
PredictIt R: Lake .84

PolyMarket D: Hobbs .21
PolyMarket R: Lake .79

Oct. 27

PredictIt D: Hobbs .18 ⬇️ .04 in three days
PredictIt R: Lake .84 ⬆️ .02 in three days

PolyMarket D: Hobbs .22 ⬇️ .07 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Lake .78 ⬆️ .07 since yesterday

Oct. 26

PredictIt D: Hobbs .20
PredictIt R: Lake .81

PolyMarket D: Hobbs .29
PolyMarket R: Lake .71

Oct. 24

PredictIt D: Hobbs .22
PredictIt R: Lake .82

PolyMarket D: Hobbs .30
PolyMarket R: Lake .70

Latest polling from FiveThirtyEight.com

November 2

FiveThirtyEight gives Lake a 64 in 100 chance of winning this race based on an aggregation of weighted polling data.