Elections & Politics

Odds to win Wisconsin Senate race between Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes

We take a look at the latest betting prices between incumbent Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Mandela Barnes for the Wisconsin Senate seat.

By Collin Sherwin@CollinSherwin Updated Nov 7, 2022, 8:54am PST

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United States Senator Ron Johnson (Republican of Wisconsin) speaks to journalists with joint a press conference with United States Senator Chris Murphy (Democrat of Connecticut) (not seen) after their meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, outside the Presidential Office in Kiev, Ukraine, on 5 September, 2019.

Democrats were hoping for a Senate seat pick-up in the Badger State, but the latest polls are breaking back towards incumbent Ron Johnson and against challenger Mandela Barnes. It’s still a very close race that likely will be within just a couple percentage points on the night of November 8 as the votes are counted, but pollsters and oddsmakers have seen it breaking more for the Republican as of late.

While Barnes hopes a large turnout operation in places such as Milwaukee can be his key to victory, an infusion of cash for media buys from several sources is helping Johnson hang on as of now.

We’ll use three websites to track how betting on the election is going:

PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.

PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.

BetFair is a market-based site where traders can buy and sell at odds, but is not available to customers in the United States.

The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games.

Odds to win Wisconsin Senate race

Nov. 7

PredictIt D: Barnes .14
PredictIt R: Johnson .88

PolyMarket D: Barnes .15
PolyMarket R: Johnson .85

BetFair D: Barnes +550
BetFair R: Johnson -1250

Nov. 2

PredictIt D: Barnes .16
PredictIt R: Johnson .87

PolyMarket D: Barnes .15
PolyMarket R: Johnson .85

BetFair D: Barnes +550
BetFair R: Johnson -1250