Odds to win Pennsylvania Senate race between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz

One of the most interesting Senate races in the country comes from the Keystone State, where the reigning Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman has battled the effects of a stroke while campaigning. His opponent Dr. Mehmet Oz brings plenty of celebrity cache, but also is answering charges that he’s not actually from Pennsylvania, something Fetterman’s well-regarded social media team has been hammering home for months.

Fetterman seemed to be in control of this race, but late-breaking polling has seen this race get closer than ever as both sides pump in tens of millions of dollars. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro is considered a safe bet, but this is a toss-up in terms of who will head to Washington D.C. The polls favor Fetterman, but the money is on Oz.

We’ll use three websites to track how betting on the election is going:

PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.

PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.

BetFair is a market-based site where traders can buy and sell at odds, but is not available to customers in the United States.

The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games.

Update October 26: The debate between Fetterman and Oz, which took place the night of October 25, had an effect in bettors minds. Fetterman struggled at times due to the aftereffects of his stroke, and the markets moved because of it.

Odds to win Pennsylvania Senate race

Nov. 7

PredictIt D: Fetterman .43
PredictIt R: Oz .60

PolyMarket D: Fetterman .43
PolyMarket R: Oz .57

BetFair D: Fetterman +125
BetFair R: Oz -175

Nov. 2

PredictIt D: Fetterman .43 ⬆️ .06 since yesterday
PredictIt R: Oz .61 ⬇️ .06 since yesterday

PolyMarket D: Fetterman .46
PolyMarket R: Oz .54

BetFair D: Fetterman +163
BetFair R: Oz -227

Nov. 1

PredictIt D: Fetterman .37
PredictIt R: Oz .67

PolyMarket D: Fetterman .45 ⬆️ .05 since last week
PolyMarket R: Oz .55 ⬇️ .05 since last week

BetFair D: Fetterman +125
BetFair R: Oz -175

Oct. 28

PredictIt D: Fetterman .39
PredictIt R: Oz .67

PolyMarket D: Fetterman .40
PolyMarket R: Oz .60

BetFair D: Fetterman +125
BetFair R: Oz -175

Oct. 27

PredictIt D: Fetterman .41 ⬆️ .04 since yesterday
PredictIt R: Oz .63 ⬇️ .03 since yesterday

PolyMarket D: Fetterman .44 ⬆️ .03 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Oz .56 ⬇️ .03 since yesterday

BetFair D: Fetterman +110
BetFair R: Oz -150

Oct. 26

PredictIt D: Fetterman .37 ⬇️ .12 since yesterday
PredictIt R: Oz .67 ⬆️ .12 since yesterday

PolyMarket D: Fetterman .41 ⬇️ .05 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Oz .59 ⬆️ .05 since yesterday

BetFair D: Fetterman +110 -30 since yesterday
BetFair R: Oz -150 +30 since yesterday

Oct. 24

PredictIt D: Fetterman .49
PredictIt R: Oz .55

PolyMarket D: Fetterman .46
PolyMarket R: Oz .54

BetFair D: Fetterman -120
BetFair R: Oz -120

Latest polling from FiveThirtyEight.com

Nov. 1

FiveThirtyEight gives Fetterman a 54 in 100 chance of winning this race based on an aggregation of weighted polling data.