Odds to win Nevada Senate race between Catherine Cortez Masto and Adam Laxalt

What was once thought to be a safe seat for Democrats is now one of the tightest races of the 2022 midterm cycle, as incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto has been pressed by Republican Adam Laxalt, who seems to be closing well according to betting markets and polling.

For the Democrats to maintain control of the upper chamber of Congress, keeping Cortez Masto in her seat is almost essential. While the demographics of Nevada have changed significantly since her last election in 2016, it’s still a seat that the “Reid Machine” believes it can defend due to their infamous turnout operation.

But Laxalt has performed well in debates, and has run a race where he’s been able to appeal to some moderate and independent voters despite Republicans being out-registered statewide.

We’ll use three websites to track how betting on the election is going:

PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.

PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.

BetFair is a market-based site where traders can buy and sell at odds, but is not available to customers in the United States.

The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games.

Odds to win Nevada Senate race

Nov. 7

PredictIt D: Cortez Masto .36
PredictIt R: Laxalt .66

PolyMarket D: Cortez Masto .35
PolyMarket R: Laxalt .66

BetFair D: Cortez Masto +220163
BetFair R: Laxalt -227

Nov. 2

PredictIt D: Cortez Masto .28 ⬇️ .08 since yesterday
PredictIt R: Laxalt .74 ⬆️ .08 since yesterday

PolyMarket D: Cortez Masto .35 ⬇️ .05 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Laxalt .60 ⬆️ .05 since yesterday

BetFair D: Cortez Masto +220
BetFair R: Laxalt -333

Nov. 1

PredictIt D: Cortez Masto .36 ⬇️ .04 since last week
PredictIt R: Laxalt .66

PolyMarket D: Cortez Masto .40 ⬆️ .02 since last week
PolyMarket R: Laxalt .60 ⬇️ .02 since last week

BetFair D: Cortez Masto +150
BetFair R: Laxalt -200

Oct. 28

PredictIt D: Cortez Masto .40
PredictIt R: Laxalt .67

PolyMarket D: Cortez Masto .38
PolyMarket R: Laxalt .62

BetFair D: Cortez Masto +150
BetFair R: Laxalt -200

Oct. 27

PredictIt D: Cortez Masto .39 ⬆️ .03 since yesterday
PredictIt R: Laxalt .66 ⬇️ .01 since yesterday

PolyMarket D: Cortez Masto .39 ⬆️ .05 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Laxalt .61 ⬇️ .05 since yesterday

BetFair D: Cortez Masto +163
BetFair R: Laxalt -227

Oct. 26

PredictIt D: Cortez Masto .36
PredictIt R: Laxalt .64

PolyMarket D: Cortez Masto .34
PolyMarket R: Laxalt .66

BetFair D: Cortez Masto +163
BetFair R: Laxalt -227

Oct. 24

PredictIt D: Cortez Masto .33
PredictIt R: Laxalt .68

PolyMarket D: Cortez Masto .33
PolyMarket R: Laxalt .67

BetFair D: Cortez Masto +163
BetFair R: Laxalt -227

Latest polling from FiveThirtyEight.com

November 2

FiveThirtyEight gives Laxalt a 59 in 100 chance of winning this race based on an aggregation of weighted polling data.