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Florida has only elected two Democrats for statewide office since 2006, but the Blue Team was hoping that Marco Rubio might be challenged for his re-election after his disappointing Presidential candidacy in 2016.
But Orlando-area Congresswoman Val Demings has yet to make real inroads in polling, and Democrats will need an unexpected wave of turnout to even keep the race close by most measures. Floridians began their 14 days of early voting on October 24, with some mail-in ballots being returned even earlier.
We’ll use three websites to track how betting on the election is going:
PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.
PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.
BetFair is a market-based site where traders can buy and sell at odds, but is not available to customers in the United States.
The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games.
Odds to win Florida Senate race
Nov. 7
PredictIt D: Demings .04
PredictIt R: Rubio .96
PolyMarket D: Demings .02
PolyMarket R: Rubio .98
BetFair D: Demings +900
BetFair R: Rubio -3333
Nov. 2
PredictIt D: Demings .05
PredictIt R: Rubio .95
PolyMarket D: Demings .05
PolyMarket R: Rubio .95
BetFair D: Demings +900
BetFair R: Rubio -3333
Nov. 1
PredictIt D: Demings .06
PredictIt R: Rubio .94
PolyMarket D: Demings .04
PolyMarket R: Rubio .96
BetFair D: Demings +700
BetFair R: Rubio -1667
Oct. 28
PredictIt D: Demings .06
PredictIt R: Rubio .95
PolyMarket D: Demings .06
PolyMarket R: Rubio .94
BetFair D: Demings +700
BetFair R: Rubio -1667
Oct. 27
PredictIt D: Demings .08
PredictIt R: Rubio .95
PolyMarket D: Demings .06 ⬇️ .02 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Rubio .94 ⬆️ .02 since yesterday
BetFair D: Demings +700
BetFair R: Rubio -1667
Oct. 26
PredictIt D: Demings .07
PredictIt R: Rubio .94
PolyMarket D: Demings .08
PolyMarket R: Rubio .92
BetFair D: Demings +700
BetFair R: Rubio -1667
Oct. 24
PredictIt D: Demings .08
PredictIt R: Rubio .94
PolyMarket D: Demings .08
PolyMarket R: Rubio .92
BetFair D: Demings +700
BetFair R: Rubio -1667
Latest polling from FiveThirtyEight.com
November 2
FiveThirtyEight gives Rubio a 94 in 100 chance of winning this race based on an aggregation of weighted polling data.