Elections & Politics

Odds to win Florida Senate race between Marco Rubio and Val Demings

We take a look at the latest betting prices between incumbent Senator Marco Rubio and Representative Val Demings for the United States Senate.

By Collin Sherwin@CollinSherwin Updated Nov 7, 2022, 8:52am PST

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Republican Sen. Marco Rubio speaks as he debates his Democratic challenger Rep. Patrick Murphy during the U.S. Senate debate being held at Broward College on October 26, 2016 in Davie, Florida.

Florida has only elected two Democrats for statewide office since 2006, but the Blue Team was hoping that Marco Rubio might be challenged for his re-election after his disappointing Presidential candidacy in 2016.

But Orlando-area Congresswoman Val Demings has yet to make real inroads in polling, and Democrats will need an unexpected wave of turnout to even keep the race close by most measures. Floridians began their 14 days of early voting on October 24, with some mail-in ballots being returned even earlier.

We’ll use three websites to track how betting on the election is going:

PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.

PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.

BetFair is a market-based site where traders can buy and sell at odds, but is not available to customers in the United States.

The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games.

Odds to win Florida Senate race

Nov. 7

PredictIt D: Demings .04
PredictIt R: Rubio .96

PolyMarket D: Demings .02
PolyMarket R: Rubio .98

BetFair D: Demings +900
BetFair R: Rubio -3333

Nov. 2

PredictIt D: Demings .05
PredictIt R: Rubio .95

PolyMarket D: Demings .05
PolyMarket R: Rubio .95

BetFair D: Demings +900
BetFair R: Rubio -3333