Odds to win Arizona Senate race between Mark Kelly and Blake Masters

While the race for governor in the Grand Canyon State is certainly closer, incumbent Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly has stayed ahead of Republican Blake Masters in a race many GOP strategists were hoping to find a pick-up seat in the 2022 midterm elections.

Masters has been endorsed by Donald Trump, but Kelly’s moderate voting record and image has him projected to stay ashore even with what might be a Republican wave election. A loss by Kelly would likely mean that Democrats nationally will far underperform their expectations, and maintaining control of the Senate would be highly unlikely.

We’ll use three websites to track how betting on the election is going:

PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.

PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.

BetFair is a market-based site where traders can buy and sell at odds, but is not available to customers in the United States.

The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games..

Odds to win Arizona Senate race

Nov. 7

PredictIt D: Kelly .50
PredictIt R: Masters .52

PolyMarket D: Kelly .53
PolyMarket R: Masters .47

BetFair D: Kelly +100
BetFair R: Masters -137

Nov. 2

PredictIt D: Kelly .49 ⬇️ .03 since yesterday
PredictIt R: Masters .54 ⬆️ .05 since yesterday

PolyMarket D: Kelly .58 ⬆️ .06 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Masters .42 ⬇️ .06 since yesterday

BetFair D: Kelly -120
BetFair R: Masters -120

Nov. 1

PredictIt D: Kelly .52 ⬆️ .05 over weekend
PredictIt R: Masters .49 ⬇️ .08 since yesterday

PolyMarket D: Kelly .52
PolyMarket R: Masters .48

BetFair D: Kelly -137
BetFair R: Masters +100

Oct. 28

PredictIt D: Kelly .47 ⬇️ .06 since yesterday
PredictIt R: Masters .57 ⬆️ .05 since yesterday

PolyMarket D: Kelly .52
PolyMarket R: Masters .48

BetFair D: Kelly -137
BetFair R: Masters +100

Oct. 27

PredictIt D: Kelly .53
PredictIt R: Masters .52

PolyMarket D: Kelly .53 ⬇️ .06 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Masters .47 ⬆️ .06 since yesterday

BetFair D: Kelly -175
BetFair R: Masters +125

Oct. 26

PredictIt D: Kelly .52
PredictIt R: Masters .51

PolyMarket D: Kelly .59
PolyMarket R: Masters .41

BetFair D: Kelly -175
BetFair R: Masters +125

Oct. 24

PredictIt D: Kelly .57
PredictIt R: Masters .46

PolyMarket D: Kelly .59
PolyMarket R: Masters .41

BetFair D: Kelly -175
BetFair R: Masters +125

Latest polling from FiveThirtyEight.com

November 2

FiveThirtyEight gives Kelly a 66 in 100 chance of winning this race based on an aggregation of weighted polling data.