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Odds to control US Senate after 2022 midterm elections

The Republicans need to net one seat to take control of the upper chamber, but they’re on the defensive in many states already.

By Collin Sherwin Updated

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King Abdullah II of Jordan participates in a photo-op with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer at the U.S. Capitol on May 10, 2022 in Washington, DC. King Abdullah II is on a multi-day trip to the the United States to meet with lawmakers, President Biden and members of the administration to discuss regional issues. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Control of the United States Senate hangs in the balance on November 8, as 35 races in 34 states will determine who controls the upper chamber of Congress for the next two years.

And while we should start to have some answers as to what American government will look sometime the following morning, there’s a chance this extends into December: If neither candidate in the Georgia Senate race gets 50% of the vote, that state will go to a runoff on December 6.

Current balance of power

Right now the Democrats hold 50 Senate seats, with the Republicans at 50 as well. The tie-breaking vote goes to Vice President Kamala Harris, who of course remains in office after the election. The Republicans will need to get to 51 seats to take control of the chamber.

Most of these races aren’t really competitive, as 24 of the 35 are pretty much set in stone. But the following 11 races will determine who has the gavel in January of 2023.

  • Arizona: Mark Kelly (D*) vs. Blake Masters
  • Colorado: Michael Bennet (D*) vs. Joe O’Dea
  • Florida: Marco Rubio (R*) vs. Val Demings (D)
  • Georgia: Raphael Warnock (D*) vs. Herschel Walker
  • Nevada: Catherine Cortez-Masto vs. Adam Laxalt
  • New Hampsire: Maggie Hassan (D*) vs. Don Bolduc
  • North Carolina: Cheri Beasley (D) vs. Ted Budd (R)
  • Ohio: Pat Ryan (D) vs. JD Vance (R)
  • Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (D) vs. Mehmet Oz (R)
  • Utah: Mike Lee (R*) vs. Evan McMullin (I)
  • Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R*) vs. Mandela Barnes (D)

* incumbent

Odds to win control of US Senate

We’ll use three different metrics to judge the betting markets for the 2022 midterm election, some of which are open to United States citizens and residents.

PredictIt: An US-based website where Americans can bet on the election, with a limit of $850 per person. New Zealand’s Victoria University of Wellington owns the site, which is used for academic research purposes and has an exemption from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

PolyMarket: A blockchain-based site where traders can bet on the outcomes of events inside and outside of politics using USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the value of $1 USD. It runs on the Polygon network.

Betfair: One of the largest sites worldwide for trading political futures, but not available to US-based customers.

The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games.

November 7 11:50 a.m.

PredictIt: .37 for Democrats to win, .69 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .35 for Democrats to win, .65 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +900 for Democrats to win 51 seats or more, -278 for Republicans to hold 49 seats or less. An exactly 50/50 split continuing is priced at +250.

November 2 1:30 p.m.

PredictIt: .31 for Democrats to win, .72 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .35 for Democrats to win, .65 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +900 for Democrats to win 51 seats or more, -278 for Republicans to hold 49 seats or less. An exactly 50/50 split continuing is priced at +250.

November 1 1:00 a.m.

PredictIt: .35 for Democrats to win, .68 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .36 for Democrats to win, .64 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +900 for Democrats to win 51 seats or more, -278 for Republicans to hold 49 seats or less. An exactly 50/50 split continuing is priced at +250.

October 28 2:45 p.m.

PredictIt: .33 for Democrats to win, .73 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .33 for Democrats to win, .67 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +900 for Democrats to win 51 seats or more, -278 for Republicans to hold 49 seats or less. An exactly 50/50 split continuing is priced at +250.

October 27 1:00 p.m.

PredictIt: .34 for Democrats to win, .69 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .36 for Democrats to win, .64 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +750 for Democrats to win 51 seats or more, -227 for Republicans to hold 49 seats or less. An exactly 50/50 split continuing is priced at +200.

October 26 1:00 p.m.

PredictIt: .35 for Democrats to win, .70 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .36 for Democrats to win, .64 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +700 for Democrats to win 51 seats or more, -189 for Republicans to hold 49 seats or less. An exactly 50/50 split continuing is priced at +188.

October 24 1:00 p.m.

PredictIt: .39 for Democrats to win, .65 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .40 for Democrats to win, .60 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +700 for Democrats to win 51 seats or more, -189 for Republicans to hold 49 seats or less. An exactly 50/50 split continuing is priced at +188.

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