Through six weeks of NFL action, underdogs and unders have held a distinctive betting edge. Dogs are 55-39 ATS (59%) this season. Dogs +3.5 or more are 38-19 ATS (67%) and dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 39-25 ATS (61%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 57-38 ATS (60%). Divisional unders are 22-10 (69%) and unders when the wind blows 10 MPH or more are 16-8 (67%).
With these trends in mind, let’s examine a trio of NFL Week 7 games receiving sharp action today...
1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 41.5)
The Colts (3-2-1) have won three of their last four games and just beat the Jags 34-27, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (3-2) are coming off a bye and have won three straight games. Prior to the bye, the Titans just beat the Commanders 21-17, winning outright as a road pick’em play. This line opened with the Titans listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Tennessee, driving the Titans from -1.5 to -2.5. Tennessee briefly reached the key number of 3 before some Colts +3 buyback brought the line back down to 2.5. Favorites off a bye, like the Titans, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Mike Vrabel is 4-0 ATS off a bye as head coach of the Titans.
4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-5, 50)
The Seahawks (3-3) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Cardinals 19-9, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Chargers (4-2) have won three straight games and just beat the Broncos 19-16 but failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Smart money has hammered the Seahawks plus the points, dropping Seattle from +7.5 to +5. All movement has been toward Seattle with no buyback on Los Angeles. Dogs with a “severe” line move of 2-points or more in their direction are 8-3 ATS this season 61% ATS since the start of the 2019 season. Seattle also enjoys a rest vs tired advantage as the Chargers are on a short week having just played on Monday night. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 53 to 50.