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AJ Dillon start or sit: Week 4 fantasy football advice

We break down the fantasy football outlook of AJ Dillon ahead of the Packers Week 4 matchup against the Patriots.

AJ Dillon of the Green Bay Packers runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers were once known as an offensive juggernaut via the passing attack. Things have shifted quite a bit in 2022. Green Bay doesn’t have any notable receivers on the roster for QB Aaron Rodgers to throw to. It’s become more about the run game with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Let’s take a look at Dillon’s outlook for Week 4 vs. the New England Patriots.

Fantasy Football analysis: Packers RB AJ Dillon

Dillon has been the consistent runner in the Packers’ backfield ahead of Jones. The issue is Dillon isn’t getting the TDs early on. He’s seeing enough touches week-to-week but is never going to consistently eclipse 20-25 touches in a game. Still, Dillon has 30 carries over the past two weeks and even has 12 targets on the season. Eventually the usage will translate to more fantasy points, especially once the Packers get into the soft part of their schedule.

For now, the Patriots are a good matchup given the game script and spread. The Packers are heavy favorites at -9 on DraftKings Sportsbook. That means Green Bay is expected to win by a wide margin and could run the ball most of the second half. Dillon would get the tougher carries over Jones and could see some goal line work. If Dillon is employed to go in and smash the defense to milk the clock, he’s got a good chance to get to 15-20 touches.

Start or sit in Week 4?

Dillon is a good FLEX play in most formats. He’s a fringe RB2 but really doesn’t have the big-play ability and is reliant on TDs for big fantasy days. If Dillon doesn’t find pay dirt, he would need to go for 70-80 yards on the ground with a few catches and over 100 total yards. Which feels more than worthy of a FLEX spot.