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Aaron Rodgers start or sit: Week 4 fantasy football advice

We break down the fantasy football outlook of Aaron Rodgers ahead of the Packers Week 4 matchup against the Patriots.

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers is helped up off the field by William Gholston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is going to have an uphill battle if he wants to take home a third straight MVP award. Let’s be real, it isn’t happening. That isn’t a knock on Rodgers early in the season. The Packers have dealt with injuries to an already thing wide receiving ranks. The matchups have also been tough and Rodgers is figuring out who to trust throwing the ball. Let’s look at his outlook for Week 4 vs. the New England Patriots.

Fantasy Football analysis: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers only has 38.16 fantasy points in three weeks. That isn’t cutting it for a starting QB spot. Two games were tough — the Vikings and Bucs — but the Bears game he was fantastic from a real standpoint. From a fantasy standpoint? Not cutting it. Rodgers also hasn’t thrown the ball more than 35 times in a game this season. The Packers just aren’t going to look to throw as consistently because of the lack of receiving options and the backfield of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. So it’s going to take a very masterful performance for Rodgers to ever return value in fantasy this season.

The Patriots may not have QB Mac Jones this week, which hurts the value of Rodgers. Green Bay is favored by almost 10 points on the spread. If it’s a blow out, the Packers will lean on the run game. Again, Rodgers can throw for three TDs, but the likelihood he throws for 300+ yards is slim. That’s why the margin for error is so low.

Start or sit in Week 4?

Rodgers is a start in super FLEX leagues and if you’re in a 12- or 14-team league. The Patriots just got torched by the Ravens and Lamar Jackson and may not have their QB. It’s not like the Packers are going to let up on the gas against Bill Belichick if the game gets out of hand.