The 49ers come into the game with a 3-2 record and are in first place in the NFC West. They have won two straight over the Rams and Panthers, scoring 61 points across the two games and showing some life after an ugly performance against the Broncos in Week 3. The 49ers defense has been the best in the NFL this season, but it will be without cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, defensive back Jimmie Ward, and likely edge rusher Nick Bosa.
The Falcons are 2-3 and sitting in a second-place tie in the NFC South with the Saints, a game back of the Buccaneers. Atlanta nearly upended the Bucs last weekend in Tampa, but a late roughing the passer penalty cost them a comeback shot. Grady Jarrett sacked Tom Brady, but the refs made a bad call in deciding it was a little too much from Jarrett. The Falcons had benefited the play before on a missed defensive pass interference call that would have gotten the Bucs a first down, so really it could just be about bad officiating all around.
Here, we’ll take a look at our picks for best bets for 49ers-Falcons in Week 6 of the NFL season. All odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread: 49ers -5
Point total: 44.5
Moneyline: 49ers -215, Falcons +185
Our picks, best bets
Pick against the spread: Falcons +5
I’m a 49ers fan, so maybe this gives my pick a little more sway in this instance. The 49ers are the better team, but there are a few reasons this could end up a close one. They include, 1) San Francisco is coming into Atlanta on the second game of a doubleheader in which they’ve stayed back east for the week, 2) the 49ers defense is ravaged with injuries (no Emmanuel Moseley, no Jimmie Ward, potentially no Nick Bosa), and 3) the Falcons are showing some life, even if they’re not winning many games. I don’t think we see Atlanta win this game, but I could see this being a three- or four-point 49ers win. The better bet would be 49ers moneyline.
Over/under: Under 44.5
I’m tempted by the over given the 49ers injuries, but I think that’s where the book is going to suck people in. The 49ers defense faces some significant absences, but this unit is deeper than any 49ers defense in recent memory. Even without Bosa, look for Charles Omenihu to step up opposite Samson Ebukam. The secondary will see more of Ambry Thomas and Samuel Womack, but the unit as a whole has impressed. There’s some sleeper value in the under. Speaking of which...
Player prop: Marcus Mariota under 199.5 passing yards
I think this game could prove close, but I don’t think Mariota will put up the kind of numbers some might think against this 49ers defense. It’s still a good unit, and if the Falcons think they can get aggressive in light of the injuries, I think that decision could backfire.