Entering Week 6 of the NFL season, the biggest betting storyline has been the consistently profitable performance of underdogs and unders. Dogs went 10-6 ATS in Week 5 to run their record to 48-31 ATS (61%) overall. Dogs who missed the playoffs last year are 34-19 ATS (64%). Dogs who didn’t cover the previous week are 17-9 ATS (65%). Dogs off a loss of 10 points are 8-3 ATS (73%). Big dogs +7 or more are 11-4 ATS (73%).
Meanwhile, unders went 9-6 in Week 5 to improve to 47-33 (59%) overall. Windy unders 10 MPH or more are 13-7 (65%). Divisional unders are 20-8 (71%). Primetime unders are 11-5 (69%).
With these trends in mind, let’s examine five NFL Week 6 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-3, 42.5)
The Patriots (2-3) are coming off their best win of the year, dominating the Lions 29-0 and easily covering as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Browns (2-3) just fell to the Chargers 30-28, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, we’ve seen Cleveland fall from -3.5 to -3. Most shops are juicing up the Patriots +3 at -115, signaling a possible further fall down to 2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at if the tickets are even. So this drop signals pro money grabbing the points with the Patriots. Road dogs are 28-18 ATS (61%) this season. Short road dogs 3 or less are 79-60 ATS (57%) since 2019.
Baltimore Ravens (-5, 45) at New York Giants
The Ravens (3-2) just edged the Bengals 19-17 on Sunday Night Football but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (4-1) just upset the Packers 27-22 in London, winning outright as 9-point dogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 6-point road favorite. A slight majority of bets are laying the points with Lamar Jackson, however we’ve seen this line tumble from Ravens -6 to -5. This indicates smart money taking the points with the Giants at home. Dogs who missed the playoffs last season, like the Giants here, are 34-19 ATS (64%). Daniel Jones is 20-13 ATS (61%) in his career as a dog, including 3-0 ATS this season. Jackson is just 16-21 ATS (43%) as a favorite of -3.5 or more.