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No. 9 Oklahoma State vs. No. 16 Baylor picks and best bets for Week 5 Big 12 matchup

The Cowboys and Bears meet in what might be an elimination game for the Big 12 championship.

NCAA Football: Albany at Baylor Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys are coming off a bye week after going unbeaten in the non-conference schedule as they head on the road for a top-20 matchup against the #16 Baylor Bears on Saturday, October 1st at 3:30 p.m. ET from McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. Baylor opened conference play with a 31-24 win over the Iowa State Cyclones last weekend as it looks to defend its Big 12 title this fall.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Oklahoma State: 107 overall, 49 offense, 127 defense
Baylor: 122 overall, 124 offense, 69 defense

Injury update

Oklahoma State

WR Jaden Bray - Probable (arm)
WR Blaine Green - Questionable (wrist)


RB Taye McWilliams - Doubtful (undisclosed)


Against The Spread

Oklahoma State: 2-1 ATS
Baylor: 3-1 ATS


Oklahoma State: Over 2-1
Baylor: Over 2-2

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Oklahoma State: 107 overall, 49 offense, 127 defense
Baylor: 122 overall, 124 offense, 69 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Baylor -2.5
Total: 55.5
Moneyline: Baylor -130, Oklahoma State +110

Opening line: Baylor -1
Opening total: 52.5


87 degrees, 7 MPH wind, 2% chance of rain

The Pick

Baylor -1

Oklahoma State has the advantage of getting a couple weeks to prepare for this matchup, but let’s not underestimate the look-ahead bye week coming for Baylor. The Bears return home and with a win, they can spend the next couple weeks feeling good about themselves. That’s what we’ll see on Saturday afternoon because Dave Aranda is emerging as someone who could be the next star at head coach and will have Baylor ready to play as it moves to 2-0 in Big 12 play. The Bears are far more battle tested with games against BYU Cougars and Iowa State, and the Cowboys have not seem close to the talent level of Baylor early in 2022.

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