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Navy vs. Air Force picks and best bets for Week 5 academy matchup

The Middies and Falcons meet in the first battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy of 2022

NCAA Football: Nevada at Air Force Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Navy Midshipmen and Air Force Falcons will get another matchup between two service academies on Saturday, October 1st at noon ET from Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, Colorado. Air Force will enter with a 3-1 record and scored more than 40 points three times this season, while Navy picked up its first victory of 2022 last weekend with a double-overtime win over the East Carolina Pirates to move to 1-2 through three games.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Navy: 114 overall, 123 offense, 82 defense
Air Force: 54 overall, 71 offense, 43 defense

Injury update


No reported injuries

Air Force

WR Wyatt Wilson - Out (shoulder)
DE Jayden Thierfgood - Questionable (undisclosed)
QB Zac Larrier - Questionable (undisclosed)
WR DeAndre Hughes - Questionable (undisclosed)
WR Dane Kinamon - Questionable (undisclosed)


Against The Spread

Navy: 1-2 ATS
Air Force: 3-1 ATS


Navy: Over 1-2
Air Force: Over 3-1

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Navy: 109 overall, 84 offense, 111 defense
Air Force: 68 overall, 48 offense, 80 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Air Force -14
Total: 38.5
Moneyline: Air Force -600, Navy +450

Opening line: Air Force -15
Opening total: 34.5


68 degrees, 11 MPH wind, 74% chance of rain

The Pick

Under 38.5

The over/under has been driven up throughout the week, and that’s great news because the under is the play on Saturday afternoon. These two teams run the ball more than any other teams among the 131 FBS teams. Air Force runs the ball on 88.2% of snaps, while Navy runs at 83.2%. That clock will be moving constantly with time-eating possessions, and this is a great number to side with the under on.

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