What seed can Patriots be in the 2022 NFL Playoffs?

Sunday update: The Patriots lost to the Dolphins, which means they can’t get any higher seeding than No. 5. They will need the Raiders to lose or tie tonight for that to happen. If the Raiders end up winning, the Patriots get the No. 6 seed.

Saturday update: The Chiefs beat the Broncos 28-24. That locks in the Chiefs at no worse than the No. 2 seed and potentially the No. 1 seed if the Titans lose. The Patriots are out of the race for the No. 1 seed, but can still claim as high as the No. 2 seed.

The New England Patriots have the widest possibility of seeding outcomes of any team in the league, as they theoretically could finish from the No. 1 seed all the way down to the No. 7 seed. They do not control their future seeding though, as a win on its own can only get them to the No. 5 seed.

The most relevant game Patriots fans will keep an eye on other than their own will be the Bills vs. Jets. A Bills loss would give the Patriots a chance to win the AFC East with a win over the Dolphins and then to have some room to move up with losses by the Chiefs, Titans, or Bengals. Unfortunately, the Bills are 16-point favorites over the Jets.

The good news is that the Patriots are 6-point favorites in Miami, per DraftKings Sportsbook. If they can take care of business, they’ll have at least kept themselves out of the No. 6 or 7 seeds.

Relevant games impacting seeding for the Patriots include:

Patriots @ Dolphins
Chiefs @ Broncos
Bengals @ Browns
Colts @ Jaguars
Titans @ Texans
Jets @ Bills
Chargers @ Raiders

All seeding possibilities are broken down through NFLPlayoffScenarios.com.

How they can be No. 1 seed

1. Patriots win + Bills loss/tie + Titans loss + Chiefs loss

How they can be No. 2 seed

1. Patriots win + Bills loss/tie + Titans win/tie + Chiefs loss, OR
2. Patriots win + Bills loss/tie + Titans loss + Chiefs win/tie

How they can be No. 3 seed

1. Patriots win + Bills loss/tie + Titans win/tie + Chiefs win/tie, OR
2. Patriots win + Bills loss + Bengals loss/tie

How they can be No. 4 seed

1. Patriots tie + Bills loss + Bengals win

How they can be No. 5 seed

1. Patriots win/tie + Bills win, OR
2. Patriots tie + Bills tie, OR
3. Patriots loss + Colts loss/tie + Raiders loss/tie

How they can be No. 6 seed

1. Patriots loss + Colts win + Raiders loss/tie, OR
2. Patriots loss + Colts loss/tie + Raiders win

How they can be No. 7 seed

1. Patriots loss + Colts win + Raiders win