This weekend the AFC Divisional Round brings about a rematch of last season’s AFC title game as the Buffalo Bills hit the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. So where are sports bettors going as we get closer to the game? Let’s take a look at betting splits for the Bills-Chiefs Divisional matchup at mid-week.
All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bills vs. Chiefs: Point Spread
The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites. 53% of handle and 53% of total bets are on the Chiefs to cover.
Is the public right? The line on this game opened up as the Chiefs as a 2.5 point favorite and has slowly gotten smaller and smaller since. The Bills won by 18 points earlier in the season, but Kansas City is on fire and have won 10 of its last 11 games, with six of those wins coming against playoff teams. Buffalo has a top 3 offense and defense in the NFL and have been relatively consistent all season, with a few random hiccups here and there, like a loss to Jacksonville earlier this year but are currently riding a five game winning streak.
This is going to be a really tight game, so the public is smart to be so evenly split.
Over/Under
Total points is installed at 54.5. 93% of handle and 68% of total bets are on the over.
Is the public right? Buffalo is averaging 28.4 points per game and have scored at least 30 in three of the last five games they’ve played. It doesn’t really matter how good of a defense they play, New England has a top-10 unit and the Bills hung 47 on them last week.
The same can be said for the Chiefs, who rank fourth in the NFL with 28.2 points per contest. They’ve scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games. Even in the first meeting between these teams, when the KC offense was in a weeks-long rut, the total still hit 58.
Both teams have great defenses, but the offenses will be too much for them to handle. Over should hit easily here.
Moneyline
The Chiefs are -125 favorites while the Bills are +105 underdogs. 53% of handle and 63% of total bets are on the Bills to win.
Is the public right? Much like the spread, this is a really tight one. The Bills haven’t won a road playoff game since the 1990s, so there’s a bit of history against them there. Still, this Buffalo team seems to be different from those in the past, even the 2020 team that made the AFC title game.
63% of the bets being on Buffalo to win seems like a larger amount than anticipated. We figured It would be much closer to a 50/50 split because this game basically looks like a toss up at this point.
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