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NFL MVP tracker: Rodgers, Brady lead way to wrap up regular season

Packers QB and Bucs QB will likely be the top 2 for NFL MVP in 2021. We break down the odds to win on DraftKings Sportsbook now that the regular season is over.

Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers looks to pass against the Detroit Lions during the second quarter at Ford Field on January 09, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images

The race for NFL MVP in 2021 has always really been a two-man show. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Week 18 is over. The regular season is over. The Green Bay Packers are the No. 1 seed and Brady and the Buccaneers are right behind them at 2. No matter what other players did, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes. It always felt like Rodgers vs. Brady, something we may see in the playoffs again. Let’s break down the NFL MVP odds at the end of the regular season on DraftKings Sportsbook.

So it’s down to Rodgers and Brady. Let’s go over the case for the Packers QB and then hit on Brady.

With Rodgers, it’s about quality not quantity. Rodgers didn’t put up gaudy stats, finishing with just over 4,000 passing yards and 37 TDs and a 111.9 passer rating, which led the NFL by a pretty decent margin. Rodgers also just beat Brady for No. 1 in QBR at 68.8. So in terms of efficiency, there wasn’t a better QB in the NFL all season. That should basically end the argument, right? It depends what you weigh. The Packers had the best record and should have gone 15-2 in a perfect world. Rodgers missed the loss to the Chiefs and Week 18 meant nothing.

It was also another season in which Rodgers got more out of less. The Packers failed to add another weapon in the passing game to compliment Davante Adams. Rodgers made due with backup TEs most of the season, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Adams is arguably the best WR in the NFL but the drop off to is No. 2 may be the steepest in the League. Rodgers thrived no matter who he was throwing to — Adams, MVS, Josiah Deguara. It also helps having a nice one-two punch in the run game with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. It’s not the worst group Rodgers has played with but it also ain’t the best.

Now onto Brady. He has the stats; it’s probably his second-best season statistically. Honestly, it might be his best. The Bucs had a lot of weapons on offense heading into the regular season but didn’t finish that way. Antonio Brown ended up being more of a distraction. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette all got injured. Brady still managed to throw for over 5,000 yards with 43 TDs on the NFC South champions.

It really comes down to a few games. In Week 15, the Bucs faltered against the New Orleans Saints and that dropped them out of contention for the top seed. Brady wasn’t good in that game. In three of four losses, Brady didn’t elevate his game and made mistakes. Something Rodgers didn’t really do all season. Well, at least from Week 2 thru Week 18. The other game that stands out is the Washington game. Brady threw two picks in the first quarter and the Bucs lost 29-19. In the first loss to the Saints, it was a pick-6 by Brady that sank the team. That’s the difference between Rodgers and Brady.

The thing is — will everyone see it that way? There should be enough interest in Brady as a long-shot to deny Rodgers a second straight MVP. It’ll come down to how the narrative goes leading into voting and the announcement. Either way, Rodgers should still be viewed as the heavy favorite. Is Brady worth a sprinkle in case something crazy happens? It’s Tom Brady, why not?

NFL MVP Odds 2021

Aaron Rodgers: -500
Tom Brady: +400
Cooper Kupp: +2000
Joe Burrow: +2500
Jonathan Taylor: +3500
Josh Allen: +6500
Pat4ick Mahomes: +6500
Matthew Stafford: +10000
Dak Prescott: +10000
Derek Carr: +10000
Kyler Murray: +10000
Jimmy Garoppolo: +20000
Deebo Samuel: +20000
Mac Jones: +20000
Ja’Marr Chase: +20000
Jalen Hurts: +25000
Ryan Tannehill: +25000
Ben Roethlisberger: +25000

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