NFL MVP odds: Tom Brady has strong case to win award

Tom Brady got Gronk paid and the Buccaneers the 2-seed in the NFC on Sunday in Week 18. Tampa Bay will face the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round of the playoffs next week. Brady finished with over 5,000 yards and 43 TDs on the season, falling just short of the top seed in the NFL. In all of the great seasons Brady has had over his career, this one is up there. Still, Brady will end the regular season trailing Aaron Rodgers in terms of odds for NFL MVP in 2021. Let’s take a look at Brady’s odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tom Brady NFL MVP odds: +400

Brady had the stats. He had the wins. He faced some adversity this season. Everything feels like MVP but the narrative leaned heavily into Rodgers before Week 18. The Packers had already sealed up the NFC’s top seed. A-Rod played mistake-free football basically since Week 2. Brady faltered a bit here and there and fell out of favor after the loss to the Saints in Week 15. That swung momentum in Rodgers’ direction and the Packers won every game until the finale (which didn’t matter).

So what are Brady’s chances? They’re still pretty good to be named MVP. Voters have been vocal about Rodgers’ off the field, which may have a minor affect. If anything it makes some other voters change their perception of Rodgers a bit. It shouldn’t, but it’s hard to ignore. All of that aside, Rodgers was efficient and rarely turned the ball over. Was it his best statistical showing? Not nearly. Does he work with what he’s got behind Davante Adams? Always. That fuels the Rodgers’ MVP fire; it did the same thing last season. The thing is, this season it felt like Rodgers didn’t need to do much but he did more and made it look easy.

You could look at Brady and say he torched a lot bad teams. That’s where the stats come from. If you look at three of the four losses, Brady had 5 INTs. The Bucs always had a chance to win but could have easily won had it not been for the mistakes. You can poke holes at Brady’s case until you feel good about yourself. The pokes are warranted. Last week when Rodgers was -400 and Brady was +500, it felt like things should have been closer. That could be the case until the award is announced.

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