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Baylor vs. Ole Miss picks and best bets for 2022 Sugar Bowl

The Baylor Bears and Ole Miss Rebels face off in the 2022 Sugar Bowl. We break down our picks and best bets for the game.

2021 Big 12 Championship - Oklahoma State v Baylor Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

New Year’s Day will bring us an interesting clash of styles at the Sugar Bowl as the No. 6 Baylor Bears will meet the No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels in the Superdome in New Orleans.

Baylor (11-2) was able to successfully put together a Big 12 championship season in just the second year under head coach Dave Aranda. The Bears were able to rattle off four consecutive victories to end the season, including a 21-16 win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game that came down to a clutch goal-line stand.

Ole Miss (10-2) was able to achieve the first ever 10-win regular season in program history, finishing second in the competitive SEC West. The Rebels will be led by quarterback Matt Corral, who will be playing his final game in a powder blue uniform before heading to the NFL. He threw for 3,339 passing yards and 20 touchdowns through the air this season, also adding 597 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Baylor: 18th overall, 38th offense, 16th defense
Ole Miss: 12th overall, 10th offense, 42nd defense

Sugar Bowl opt outs, injury updates


QB Gerry Bohanon will start - Shoulder

Ole Miss

K Caden Costa Questionable - Undisclosed


Against The Spread

Baylor: 9-4 ATS
Ole Miss: 7-4-1 ATS


Baylor: Over 6-7
Ole Miss: Over 3-9

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Ole Miss -1
Total: 58
Moneyline: Ole Miss -120, Baylor +100

Opening line: Ole Miss -2
Opening total: 51

Baylor vs. Ole Miss: 2022 Sugar Bowl Pick

Under 58

Style clashes makes for interesting fights. Baylor is obviously defensive oriented under Dave Aranda while the Matt Corral-led Ole Miss offense likes to get loose. One would imagine the Bears trying to dictate the tempo here and the Rebels sort of being comfortable considering that they haven’t been involved in too many shootouts this year. Lean into the under here.

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