This Thursday we have the last two overall No. 1 picks in the draft facing off in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence both have plenty of ability, but we’re still in the early stages of their career. The Bengals have played conservatively and been successful with a 2-1 record, whereas the Jaguars defense is allowing an average of 30 points per game, which has put Lawrence in tough spots so far.
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
Higgins missed Week 3 with a shoulder injury and will miss this game. Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd get a bump on TNF.
Dan Arnold, TE, Jaguars
The Jaguars traded cornerback C.J. Henderson for Panthers’ tight end Dan Arnold. Arnold could step up as the No. 1 tight end fairly quickly, but how quickly is anybody’s guess.
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
The Jaguars have been better against the run than the pass according to Football Outsider’s DVOA, but the they still rank fifth-worst in fantasy points allowed to running backs. With teams getting leads on them, they are able to run the ball, even if it isn’t efficiently. And the Bengals want to run the ball. Quarterback Joe Burrow ranks 29th in pass attempts while Mixon is second in rush attempts.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
I have no illusions that Lawrence is going to smash in this game, but the Bengals will be without some key players in their secondary and so far, they’ve faced some suspect quarterbacks. The combo of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields, along with what’s left of Ben Roethlisberger, has the Bengals pass defense looking better than it is. In Week 1, Kirk Cousins completed 36-of-49 passes for 351 yards and two touchdowns against them.
Lawrence is probably going to need to throw the ball in this one, which could limit James Robinson’s upside and spread the touches around to receivers. Marvin Jones is the only other Jaguars player I’d
D.J. Chark, WR, Jaguars — $7,200
Chark has two touchdowns on the season on 22 targets. He only has seven receptions, which means he’s caught just 32 percent of his targets. I expect that to get better as we go along and this might be the week him and Lawrence get on track.
Evan McPherson, Kicker, Bengals — $3,800
You could also go with the Bengals D/ST to find value, but they’ve shot up in price with good production against the Steelers. McPherson is a better value, as he actually has a better points per game average. I also like him in a game where the Bengals should run the ball plenty and probably get stalled in the red zone a few times. The Jaguars have also allowed the third-most kicker fantasy points this season.