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NFL Survivor pool, Week 4: Strategy and safe, value, trap picks

The NFL season is back and that means Survivor pools once again. We are here to provide tips to stay alive all season.

Quarterback Jameis Winston #2 of the New Orleans Saints shares a smile as he greets teammate quarterback Taysom Hill #7 during the second half of their game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on January 03, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

The NFL is back for Week 4 and we’re down to five unbeaten squads at 3-0. The Raiders and Broncos are atop the AFC West, the Rams and Cardinals lead the NFC West, and the Panthers are a game up on the Bucs in the NFC South.

Last week saw several notable upsets and one near monumental upset. The Ravens beat the Lions in the last second thanks to Justin Tucker’s record-setting 66-yard field goal. Meanwhile, the Chargers, Bengals, and Packers managed road upsets while the Vikings and Rams won as home underdogs.

That all resulted in some strikes and eliminations for NFL Survivor pools, but not nearly as many as there would have been had the Ravens missed that game-winning field goal. If you’ve never played in a Survivor pool, you pick one team each week that you think will win. If that team wins, you advance, but once you use a team, you cannot use them again.

You’re welcome to just take the team favored by the most points this weekend, but there is strategy to consider if you want to survive to the end. DK Nation is here to help with a look at safe choices, value choices, and potential traps.

We saw our safe and value picks make it through last week, with the Broncos the most popular play on the board. Our trap pick of the Panthers beating the Texans ended up winning by double digits, but Houston did give Carolina some trouble in the first half.

Safest picks

Bills over Texans
Chiefs over Eagles

The Texans and Jets are two squads to regularly pick against. One reason to hold off with the Bills is value later in the season. Of course, their best remaining matchup after this week is home vs. the Jets in Week 18, but they might have nothing to play for, so is it worth saving the pick?

The Chiefs are struggling and this is a road game, but the Eagles are a badly-coached football team. There’s more value elsewhere with KC, so avoid this just for that reason.

Best value picks

Saints over Giants

New Orleans is going to be an inconsistent team this year, but their two wins have shown how solid they can be when they’re on. Their biggest remaining point spreads are home against the Falcons and on the road against the Jets. I wouldn’t touch the Falcons game given the rivalry nature, but if you want to save New Orleans for Week 14 at the Jets, it’s not the worst idea.

Trap pick

Bengals over Jaguars

The Jaguars stink, but this couldn’t be more clear-cut case of letdown possibility. Cincinnati is coming off a huge road win over Pittsburgh and hosting Green Bay in Week 5. Cincinnati could get the win, but I don’t think it’s worth the risk at this point in your Survivor pool.