Purdue vs. Notre Dame picks and best bets for Week 3

The No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been living dangerously so far in the 2021 season and will could be tested once again on Saturday when hosting the Purdue Boilermakers at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC (and Peacock!).

Notre Dame (2-0) managed to survive two potential upset bids in a span of six days last week, one an overtime victory over Florida State in Tallahassee and the other a win over Toledo in South Bend that required a go-ahead touchdown with just over a minute left on the clock. The late-game heroics came from quarterback Jack Coan, who literally jammed his dislocated finger back in its socket seconds before firing off the go-ahead touchdown to put them ahead 32-29.

After beating Oregon State in Week 1, Purdue (2-0) was afforded an opportunity to run a layup line on UConn last Saturday with a 49-0 shutout victory. The Jack Plummer to David Bell connection was putting in work as they linked up on six passes for 121 yards and three touchdowns on the afternoon. We’ll see how they do when making a significant step up in competition.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Purdue: 42nd overall, 22nd offense, 73rd defense
Notre Dame: 23rd overall, 33rd offense, 33rd defense

Injury update

Purdue

TE Garrett Miller is questionable – Undisclosed

RB Zander Horvath is out indefinitely – Undisclosed

WR Abdur Rahmaan Yaseen is questionable – Undisclosed

Notre Dame

OL Michael Carmody is questionable – Ankle

DL Osita Ekwonu Out For Season – Achilles

TE Kevin Bauman is out indefinitely – Knee

LB Prince Kollie is out – Undisclosed

RB C Bo Flemister is out – Undisclosed

RB Logan Diggs is questionable – Undisclosed

DL Jordan Botelho is probable – Undisclosed

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Purdue: 1-5 ATS (2020)
Notre Dame: 6-6 ATS (2020)

Total

Purdue: Over 2-4 (2020)
Notre Dame: Over 6-6 (2020)

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Purdue: 56th overall, 58th offense, 51st defense
Notre Dame: 10th overall, 6th offense, 13th defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Notre Dame -7.5
Total: 59
Moneyline: Notre Dame -300, Purdue +235

Opening line: Notre Dame -8.5
Opening total: 59

Weather

83 degrees, 8 MPH winds NE, 22% chance of rain

The Pick

Notre Dame -7.5

The Fighting Irish have looked shaky so far but the performance against Toledo last week can be explained away with four factors: 1. Short week of preparation. 2. Three turnovers, 3. Inability to run the football effectively. 4. Over 10 minute differential in time of possession.

You eliminate at least two of those issues and Notre Dame wins comfortably. With a full week to prepare for the Boilermakers, the Irish should look much more crisp and should handle a talented, but inferior opponent. Notre Dame covers in South Bend.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.