Michigan State vs. Miami picks and best bets for Week 3

The No. 24 Miami Hurricanes are now two weeks removed from their Week 1 beatdown at the hands of Alabama and will look to generate some momentum when welcoming the Michigan State Spartans to Hard Rock Stadium at noon ET on ABC.

Miami (1-1) survived what’s known as the “Bama hangover” last week, warding off an upset bid from Appalachian State for a 25-23 win. Both teams were pretty even statistically on both sides of the ball but it was the Hurricane defense who managed to snuff out App’s last ditch effort to get into field goal territory late. Running back Cam’Ron Harris took 18 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown.

Michigan State (2-0) has gotten off to a good start in Year 2 of the Mel Tucker era and they followed up a season-opening win over Northwestern with a 42-14 blowout of Youngstown State last week. Starting QB Payton Thorne had a clean day of 15-21 passing for 280 yards and four touchdowns. Jordon Simmons went over 100 yards rushing and Jayden Reed went over a 100 yards receiving.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Michigan State: 33rd overall, 71st offense, 12 defense
Miami: 22nd overall, 31st offense, 32nd defense

Injury update

Michigan State

QB Anthony Russo is questionable – Lower Body
WR Ricky White is questionable – Personal
RB Elijah Collins is questionable – Leg
DE Drew Jordan is questionable – Undisclosed
LB Carson Casteel is questionable – Undisclosed

Miami

Safety Avantae Williams is out Indefinitely – Discipline
RB Donald Chaney Jr. is out for the season – Leg

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Michigan State: 2-5 ATS (2020)
Miami: 6-5 ATS (2020)

Total

Michigan State: Over 5-2 (2020)
Miami: Over 6-5 (2020)

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Michigan State: 39th overall, 43rd offense, 34th defense
Miami: 12th overall, 7th offense, 14th defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Miami -6.5
Total: 57.5
Moneyline: Miami -250, Michigan State +200

Opening line: Miami -7.5
Opening total: 53.5

Weather

89 degrees, 9 MPH winds S, 54% chance of rain

The Pick

Miami -6.5

I’m going with Miami stepping up with a convincing win at home over a Michigan State team that has shown signs of promise in their rebuild. The Hurricanes understand that this game could set the tone positively or negatively for the rest of the season and given the talent superiority per 247, they’ll rise to the occasion and handle the Spartans.

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