Who has the edge in AL Rookie of the Year race?

With the final month of the 2021 MLB regular season upon us, the playoff and award races are starting to heat up. In terms of the AL Rookie of the Year race, it appeared as if Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia was going to run away with it. However, that has not been the case as Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena and Houston Astros starting pitcher Luis Garcia have all taken major strides and played significant roles on their team.

Below we are going to look at where the current AL ROY odds stand courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and give our pick on who will ultimately win the award.

AL Rookie of the Year contenders

Randy Arozarena -165
Adolis Garcia +450
Luis Garcia +550

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay - To no one’s surprise, Arozarena is the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. Arozarena has picked up where left off last postseason, hitting .274 with 18 HRs and 59 RBI. He also has 12 stolen bases this season on his resume. The former ALCS MVP’s tremendous play at the plate is one of the main reasons why the Rays are the best team in the American League with a 84-48 record. After only hitting .251 in the first half of the regular season, Arozarena is currently slashing .333/.618/1.019 in the second half of the 2021 season.

Adolis Garcia, Texas - Garcia was on a tear to start the season, hitting .270 with 22 HRs and 62 RBI in the first half of the season. However, the 28-year-old rookie slugger has seen his production drops significantly in the second half to a .210 batting average and 7 HRs. It’s been a microcosm of how the 2021 season has gone for the Rangers, who are 47-85 and one of the worst teams in the AL. The only way Garcia can win Rookie of the Year is if he tries to duplicate what he did in May (.312 with 11 HRs). But that might not be enough as Arozarena’s team is heading into the postseason.

Luis Garcia, Houston - Luis Garcia, no relation to Adolis, might have a real shot to pull the upset over Arozarena and take the AL Rookie of the Year award from him. The 24-year-old starting pitcher has a 10-6 record, 3.23 ERA, and 150 strikeouts in 128.1 IP.

The last time a pitcher won AL ROTY was Michael Fulmer in 2016. Fulmer had a 11-7 record and 132 strikeouts in 159.0 IP for a Tigers’ team that finished second in the AL Central and did not go to the postseason. The Astros are in position to go back to the playoffs and win the AL West. If Garcia can lower his ERA closer to 3.00 or better, then it’s going to be tough to give it to Arozarena.

My pick: Luis Garcia, Astros

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