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Why Nick Chubb will go OVER or UNDER rushing yards, TDs for 2021 NFL season

Now one of the NFL’s highest-paid running backs, how will Nick Chubb deliver for the Browns?

Running back Nick Chubb #24 of the Cleveland Browns looks on during the second day of Cleveland Browns Training Camp on July 29, 2021 in Berea, Ohio. Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Since entering the NFL in 2018, Nick Chubb has established himself as a reliable, dominant rusher and one of the key pieces of the Cleveland Browns. Indeed, the team rewarded Chubb with a three-year, $36.6 million extension in late July, securing his future in Cleveland.

Here, we take a look at the prop bets on the table for Chubb on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

1350.5 rushing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Over

The presence of Kareem Hunt means the Browns don’t plan to lean exclusively on Chubb in the backfield. However, as long as Chubb remains healthy, he should finish among the league leaders in carries. Since 2018 — the year Chubb entered the league — only Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliot, and Dalvin Cook have registered more rushing attempts. Cleveland wants to feed Chubb, and they will. Chubb could miss a few games and still hit the over on his rushing total.

11.5 rushing TDs: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

While Chubb does see plenty of work in the red zone, the Browns actually cut back on the number of carries he saw inside the 10-yard line on a per-game basis. Chubb still reached pay dirt 12 times, but that number figures to regress without the team adding to his workload near the goal line. With so many options on offense, head coach and offensive play-caller Kevin Stefanski has little reason to mess with a working formula.

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