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Why Aaron Jones will go OVER or UNDER rushing yards, TDs for 2021 NFL season

Running back Aaron Jones returns ready to set some new career marks.

Will Aaron Jones have a 1,000 yard season?

When the Green Bay Packers declined to use the franchise tag on Aaron Jones, many assumed the Pro Bowl running back would depart for a massive pay day elsewhere. While he certainly could have fielded attractive offers from multiple teams, Jones instead chose to stick around, signing a four-year, $48 million contract with the Packers. He returns to the league’s No. 1 scoring offense with a good chance to set some career highs in 2021.

Here, we take a look at the prop bets on the table for Jones on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

Aaron Jones player props for 2021 NFL season

1050.5 rushing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Over

The Packers have moderated Jones’ usage since head coach Matt LaFleur’s to help him avoid the injuries that plagued him his first two years in the league. Even so, Jones still sees enough carries to surpass 1,050 rushing yards. If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t return to Green Bay, Jones’ workload would seem likely to increase a bit. But even if the reigning MVP suits up, the additional game should help Jones reach the threshold anyway.

9 rushing touchdowns: Over (-120) or Under (+100)

Our pick: Under

LaFleur leans heavily on the ground game when the offense reaches the 5-yard line, and Jones has benefited more than anyone else from that approach. But with 6-foot, 247-pound AJ Dillon set to move into a more featured role this season, Jones could lose some of those goal-line carries. It would only take a few vulture scoring opportunities to knock Jones below the threshold here.

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