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Why Kyle Pitts will go OVER or UNDER receiving yards, TDs for 2021 NFL season

While the Falcons’ Kyle Pitts enters the NFL with greater expectations than any tight end in at least a decade, his Year 1 contributions need to be kept in check.

By Jason Hirschhorn
Flowery Branch, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) catches a pass during mandatory minicamp at the Atlanta Falcons Training Complex. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last decade, no tight end has entered the NFL with greater expectations than Kyle Pitts. The No. 4 overall pick in this year’s draft, Pitts has extremely rare size, speed, and refinement for the position. As a prospect, he has more in common with Calvin Johnson than other first-round tight ends of recent vintage.

Here, we take a look at the prop bets on the table for the Atlanta Falcons’ Pitts on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

800.5 receiving yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

Only four tight ends have ever recorded more than 800 receiving yards as rookies, and only one has done so in the last 30 years. Pitts certainly has the talent to do so, but he also doesn’t turn 21 until October and joins an offense also learning head coach Arthur Smith’s system. While the extra game on the schedule helps, too many variables exist to feel good about Pitts hitting the over.

7 receiving touchdowns: Over (-120) or Under (+100)

Our pick: Under

Unsurprisingly, rookie tight ends don’t have a good track record when it comes to reaching the end zone. Only four recorded more than seven touchdowns in their debut seasons, and only two have done so this century. Pitts can do it, but that still seems a herculean ask for a 20-year-old.

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