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Why Matthew Stafford will go OVER or UNDER passing yards, TDs totals for 2021 NFL season

Now freed of the Lions, Matthew Stafford has the chance to show just how high he can fly with the Rams.

Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams handles the ball during open practice at SoFi Stadium on June 10, 2021 in Inglewood, California. Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

For the NFL, arguably the biggest move in 2021 happened before the 2020 season reached its conclusion. The Los Angeles Rams traded a bevy of draft picks and quarterback Jared Goff to acquire veteran signal-caller Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions. The swap puts the Rams back into the pack of Super Bowl front-runners in the NFC and gives Stafford the platform to prove he can thrive outside the limitations of his former team.

Here, we take a look at the prop bets on the table for Stafford on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

4595.5 passing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

While Stafford steps into an offensive system known for high efficiency, he can probably expect to see a reduction in passing attempts on a per-game basis. The quality of the Rams defense will limit the number of multi-possession deficits that tend to result in high-volume passing, as will head coach Sean McVay’s use of the ground game. Stafford could well have his best season as a passer in 2021, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll set new personal records for counting stats.

28.5 passing TDs: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Over

Despite a well-earned reputation for offensive efficiency, the Rams have struggled over the past three seasons to turn red-zone trips into touchdowns, reaching the end zone on only 36.4% of those opportunities. Meanwhile, the Lions led the NFL in that metric, producing touchdowns on 83.3% of those trips. Stafford played a huge part in that success, and that should translate well to the Rams who reach the red zone often. Accordingly, Stafford could realistically lead the league in touchdown passes in 2021 if he stays healthy.

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