Despite coming off the board after two other quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft, Justin Herbert delivered the most complete rookie campaign of the group and one of the strongest rookie seasons by a signal-caller in some time. A towering, super-athletic passer, Herbert has all the tools necessary to become a dominant NFL player in the not-too-distant future, one that can finally restore the Los Angeles Chargers to relevance.
Here, we take a look at the prop bets on the table for Herbert on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.
4450.5 passing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)
Our pick: Over
As a rookie, Herbert nearly reached this total despite playing behind a supremely undermanned offensive line and only playing in 15 games. The Chargers will have a new offensive system in 2021 due to the coaching change, but some of the elements that made Herbert such a success will remain. Moreover, the overall approach should shift more toward the passing game, giving the budding star plenty of opportunities to pile up yardage.
28 passing touchdowns: Over (-120) or Under (-110)
Our pick: Over
This number seems low. Herbert threw 31 touchdowns last season in just 15 starts, making the 28 total appear easily achievable in a season with 17 games on the schedule. However, the Chargers will take a more analytically inclined approach on offense under the new coaching staff, and that likely indicates more rushing near the goal line. Thirteen of Herbert’s passing touchdowns came inside the 10-yard line — roughly 42% of his total — and that number seems most at risk for reduction.
Still, Herbert has an improved supporting cast and should improve individually too as he enters his second season (and first without any major restrictions as it pertains to the pandemic). He should exceed 28 passing touchdowns if he stays healthy, but he might not come in as far over that total as some expect.
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