The Atlanta Falcons enter a new era under head coach Arthur Smith, who lost his best wide receiver when Julio Jones was traded to the Tennessee Titans. Smith still has QB Matt Ryan and WR Calvin Ridley in the fold, along with a talented rookie in TE Kyle Pitts. The Falcons will look to be more efficient offensively as Ryan enters the late stages of his career.
800.5 rushing yards: Over (-110) or Under (-120)
Our pick: Under
Davis got a heavy workload last season with Christian McCaffrey in and out of the lineup, but the running back only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. While he’ll be the lead back in Atlanta’s backfield with little competition, the Falcons are going to primarily rely on Ryan’s arm to win games. Even with a 17th game, 800.5 is a big number for a player who has topped 100 carries in a season twice.
7.5 rushing TDs: Over (+120) or Under (-150)
Our pick: Under
Davis should get more opportunities near the goal line, but will the Falcons be scoring that much? Atlanta was in the middle of the league last season at 24.8 points per game, and there’s no evidence to suggest the team got dramatically better offensively. The Falcons also had one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL last season. Add all that up and you get under 7.5 rushing scores for Davis.
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