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Why Trevor Lawrence will go under on passing yards, over on TD prop bets for 2021 NFL season

We take a look at the odds on the table for Jacksonville Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence available on DraftKings Sportsbook and make our predictions ahead of the 2021 NFL season.

Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars participates in drills during Jacksonville Jaguars Mandatory Minicamp at TIAA Bank Field on June 15, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars were kind of a total mess last year, but heading into 2021 a lot has changed. A new quarterback, new head coach and a new energy around the team have fans excited for the future of the team.

Here, we’ll take a look at the prop bets on the table for Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

4,050 passing yds (Over -115, Under -115)

Our pick: Under

Analysis: It’s very tough to really determine this one way or another. Lawerence is easily one of the best, if not the best, QB prospects of all time heading into his rookie year. His career at Clemson was the stuff of legend, passing for an average of 3,366 yards per season over the 12 game slate.

Still, this is the NFL and it’s a much different game. He won’t have the luxury of playing Georgia Tech or Syracuse now. The high water mark for a rookie QB’s passing yards is Andrew Luck, who had just over 4,300 yards in 2012. Justin Herbert was close last year to topping it, but those are the only two to ever get well over 4,050. Cam Newton is the only other one to do it, with 4,051 yards in 2011. Still, most of those players came into better overall rosters and had a head coach with NFL experience in the past. Lawernce doesn’t have either of those things. His top receiving threat is DJ Chark, who is solid. But don’t expect the Jags to go out slinging it around week after week in year one of a massive rebuild.

25.5 passing TDs (Over -115, Under -115)

Our pick: Over

While the NFL is a different game from college, Lawerence should still get above 26 passing scores his rookie year. The Jags had just 25 passing scores a year ago, but this is an automatic upgrade at QB and they bolstered the WR corps a bit as well. Plus, even in a shortened college season, Lawerence had well over 25 TDs in his freshman and sophomore campaigns that weren’t shortened by COVID.

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