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Should the Bucks be favored in Game 3 vs. the Suns?

Milwaukee is back home in the 2021 NBA Finals an are favorites despite losing the first two games by a combined 23 points.

Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks walks off the court past Cameron Payne of the Phoenix Suns following game two of the NBA Finals at Phoenix Suns Arena on July 08, 2021 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Bucks 118-108. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Who was it that said ... A series doesn’t REALLY start until the home team loses. Well, the 2021 NBA Finals will either start or be finished on Sunday with Game 3 between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns took a 2-0 series lead with a 118-108 win over the Bucks at home on Thursday night. It was the second relatively convincing victory by Phoenix to open the Finals, one that may be pretty forgettable down the road.

As the series shifts back to Milwaukee, the Bucks are obviously favored at home. The spread is 4 points despite Milwaukee looking pretty lost through two games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 42 points and the Bucks still lost by double-digits. There seems to be a decent amount of faith in Giannis getting some help in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday went 12-for-37 from the floor and 2-of-9 from 3-point range in Game 2. It’s not just one of them who needs to step up, both do in order for the Bucks to come back.

Instead of getting to the line in Game 2, the Suns just shot 50 percent from the 3-point line. That was widely carried by 7 treys from Devin Booker. As a result of back-to-back games with 118 points, the Over/Under is set at 222 for Game 3 in Milwaukee.

The O/U has trended upward in each of the first two games with the over hitting in each. It almost feels like the total is reaching a breaking point where the under will rear its ugly head. That could be in Game 3. We preached about the second game needing to be the one in which the Bucks play defense. That wasn’t the case and now they’re down 2-0. The Bucks HAVE TO PLAY DEFENSE in Game 3 or else their season is all but over.

As for the moneyline, I mean the Suns dominated the second half in both the first two games and are +145 for Game 3. Phoenix is 6-1 on the road in the 2021 playoffs. They won four games at Staples Center against the Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers. Going to Milwaukee with this much confidence and that track record on the road, it’s hard not to lean Suns in all categories for Game 3.

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