Moneyline pick, best player prop for Mets vs. Padres on Thursday

The New York Mets and San Diego Padres will begin a four-game set at 10 p.m. ET. Taijuan Walker will be on the mound for the Mets, while Yu Darvish will start for the Padres. We’ll go over some ideal picks on DraftKings Sportsbook centered around the game here.

Mets vs. Padres, 10:00 p.m. ET

Moneyline pick: Padres -180

The Padres are reeling right now as they have lost four straight games and are missing one of their best players in Fernando Tatis Jr., who could rejoin the lineup for tonight’s game. But they are still an overwhelming favorite at -180 odds against a Mets squad, who have won 4 out of their last 5 games.

In their last four wins, the Mets are averaging 7.5 runs per game. However, they might have a tough outing tonight against Padres starter Yu Darvish. Darvish has been San Diego’s best starting pitcher with a 5-1 record and 2.16 ERA in 11 starts. The 34-year-old has pitched well at home this season, which is good news for a Padres’ team that could use a win.

Darvish has a record of 3-1, 2.06 ERA, and holding opponents to .067 batting average. The Padres have won Darvish’s last two home starts. Over his career, the veteran pitcher is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in five games against the Mets. That being said, it should be a good game as Walker has stepped in the Mets’ rotation. He 4-1 with an ERA of 1.84 and has a road ERA of 2.75. The 28-year-old has played well against the Padres over his career with a 3-1 record and 1.33 ERA in five starts. But I’m going to side with San Diego, who have been a good home team this season.

Player Prop: Taijuan Walker over 4.5 strikeouts (-134)

Even though there's a ton of juice on Walker’s player prop, there’s still a good value over Darvish’s strikeout number, which is over 7.5 strikeouts at +120 odds. The 28-year-old has only gone over 4.5 strikeouts in four out of nine starts this season. However, Walker had four starts where he recorded at least four strikeouts. He’ll be facing a Padres’ offense that does not strikeout often at 8.18 K’s per game this season, has but 8.67 K’s in their last three games.

Analysis

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