Moneyline pick, best player prop for Cardinals vs. Brewers on Thursday

By the end of today, the St. Louis Cardinals will lead the NL Central by either one game or three. That depends on what happens in their rubber match with the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon. All eyes will be focused toward the mound as this game will be a battle between the Cards’ Jack Flaherty, MLB’s only six-win pitcher, and the Brew Crew’s Corbin Burnes, who will be starting for the first time since late April and is on the verge of making some MLB history.

Cardinals vs. Brewers, 1:40 p.m. ET

Moneyline pick: Cardinals (+123)

Burnes has racked up 49 strikeouts and zero walks through his first five starts. With three more K’s before his first walk, Burnes will set an MLB record for the most strikeouts without a walk to begin a season. However, after missing the past couple of weeks due to a COVID-19 positive test, Milwaukee might handle its ace with kid gloves this afternoon. I have a little more faith in Flaherty today against the Brewers’ scuffling, high-whiff offense.

Player Prop: Paul Goldschmidt OVER 0.5 RBIs (+268)

My other favorite bet here is Flaherty recording more than 7.5 strikeouts (+125), but if you’re looking for a bigger payoff, you should know that Goldschmidt has traditionally clobbered the Brewers in their own house. He has hit 14 homers and has an OPS approaching 1.200 in 40 games as a visitor in Milwaukee. Assuming Burnes isn’t operating at full power after his IL stint, it’s definitely worth taking a shot on Goldy with this line.

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