Moneyline pick, best player prop for Mariners vs. Twins on Thursday

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Jose Berrios couldn’t have been better in his first start of 2021. He threw six no-hit innings in Milwaukee and struck out 12 Brewers. He hit a batter in the fifth inning and outside of that, he was perfect. The Twins played it safe with their high-upside righty, letting him to throw only 84 pitchers before he was pulled. Expect Berrios to have a pitch count closer to 100 in today’s matchup versus the Seattle Mariners (3-3). The Mariners are coming off a come-from-behind victory against the White Sox.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the soft-tossing Marco Gonzales would probably like to forget about his first start of the season. He got hit hard by the Giants, giving up three homers and five earned runs in six innings. He also walked three batters, which was uncharacterstic since Gonzales had a BB/9 rate less than 1.0 in nearly 70 innings last year. He will try to bounce back against a Twins offense that is third in the American League in runs and fourth in homers. Minnesota is 4-2 thus far.

Mariners vs. Twins, 4:10 p.m. ET

Moneyline pick: Twins -200

Minnesota is a sizable favorite in its 2021 home opener, and with Berrios on the bump, it’s easy to see why. He has always had the ability to turn in starts like the one last Saturday in Milwaukee; he just hasn’t shown a lot of consistency. At 26 years old, maybe this is the year Berrios really emerges as that true top-of-the-rotation ace that he has been projected to be for so long. He should have plenty of success today against a Mariners lineup that has a lot of swing-and-miss in it

Player Prop: Byron Buxton O0.5 RBI (+120)

Buxton will bat cleanup for the first time in his MLB career today. It’s an understandable spot considering how Buxton has been crushing the ball so far. He has hit three homers in 14 at-bats and has an average exit velocity of almost 96 mph. He might go deep again today, but batting fourth also increases his chances of hitting with runners on base. One RBI isn’t asking for much, and to get plus money on it increases this line’s appeal.

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