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Identifying 3 potential busts at first base for 2021 fantasy baseball

We take a look at some first basemen you should look to avoid in your fantasy baseball draft for 2021.

Jesus Aguilar #24 of the Miami Marlins strikes out during the third inning against the Atlanta Braves in Game Three of the National League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 08, 2020 in Houston, Texas.     Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

With 2021 MLB Opening Day only weeks away, it is a perfect time to discuss fantasy baseball and what should you do in your fantasy draft. After a 60-game sprint last season, this season could be one of the best with the talent across Major League Baseball.

When it comes to fantasy baseball, there will be a lot of good players at various positions that you could possibly wait for over another one. At the same time, we also have to beware of players, who might not live up to their new season expectations or what they did during the short 2020 season. We are going to discuss three potential first basemen, who could be busts this season in fantasy.

Jesus Aguilar, Miami Marlins

Aguilar was one of the many Marlins players, who had a tremendous season, which led to Miami making the playoffs in 2020. The veteran first baseman slashed .277/.352/.457 with eight home runs and 34 RBI in 51 games last season.

While the home runs and RBIs were not career-highs, the .277 batting average was one of Aguilar’s best since 2018, where he went to the all-star game in 2018. Many analysts will be watching to see what the surprising Marlins do this season. Baseball Reference projects Aguilar’s power to still be there with 23 home runs and 81 RBI. But the average will likely drop back down to .254.

Fantasy Pros predicts the same scenario for the 30-year-old with a .256 batting average, 21 home runs and 75 RBI.

Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

The 34-year-old first baseman had a tremendous 2020 season en route to winning the AL MVP. Abreu slashed .317/.370/.617 (career-high) with 19 home runs and 60 RBI in 60 games.

It was only the third time in Abreu’s career that he hit .300 or above. But at the rate, he was going if there was a full 2020 season, he would likely shattered all his previous career-best numbers. This now leads us to this season, where we could see a slight drop-off from the veteran first baseman.

According to Baseball Reference, they project Abreu to slash .272/.330/.494 with 30 home runs and 104 RBI. Meanwhile, Fantasy Pros has the 34-year-old infielder hitting .282 with 32 home runs and 112 RBI.

Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers

Despite having position versatility, Muncy is not a reliable to bat trust in your lineup or to even in the draft. Last season, the 30-year-old infielder came back down to earth, slashing .192/.331/.389 with 12 home runs and 27 RBI.

Now granted, the veteran first baseman was dealing an elbow and finger injuries, which could’ve played a major role in his production. But the projections from both Baseball Reference and Fantasy Pros are not encouraging for Muncy this season. Baseball Reference sees Muncy slashing .237/.359/.480 with 33 home runs and 87 RBI. Fantasy Pros projects Muncy to hit .242 with 31 home runs and 90 RBI.